Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are prolonged extreme oceanic warm water events. They can have devastating impacts on marine ecosystems — for example, causing mass coral bleaching and substantial declines in kelp forests and seagrass meadows — with implications for the provision of ecological goods and services. Effective adaptation and mitigation efforts by marine managers can benefit from improved MHW predictions, which at present are inadequate. In this Perspective, we explore MHW predictability on short-term, interannual to decadal, and centennial timescales, focusing on the physical processes that offer prediction. While there may be potential predictability of MHWs days to years in advance, accuracy will vary dramatically depending on the regions and drivers. Skilful MHW prediction has the potential to provide critical information and guidance for marine conservation, fisheries and aquaculture management. However, to develop effective prediction systems, better understanding is needed of the physical drivers, subsurface MHWs, and predictability limits.

海洋热波（MHW）是长时间的极端海洋暖水事件。它们可能对海洋生态系统造成毁灭性影响，例如，造成珊瑚大规模泛滥以及海带森林和海草草甸的大量减少，从而对提供生态产品和服务产生影响。海洋管理者的有效适应和减​​缓努力可以从改进的MHW预测中受益，目前这些预测还不够。在此观点中，我们将在短期，年际到十年和百年尺度上探讨MHW的可预测性，重点是提供预测的物理过程。尽管可能提前数天或数年预测MHW的可预测性，但准确性会因地区和驱动因素而异。熟练的MHW预测有可能为海洋保护，渔业和水产养殖管理提供重要的信息和指导。但是，要开发有效的预测系统，需要对物理驱动因素，地下MHW和可预测性限制有更好的了解。