The environment carrying capacity and reduction of carbon emissions are the challenges faced in the ecologically fragile areas. Therefore, the evaluation of carbon security is imperative. This paper, using Yunnan as an example, built up models of carbon footprint and vegetation carbon carrying capacity to assess the level of carbon security. The IPCC method, which is internationally recognized and universal applied, was adopted to calculate carbon footprint. Forest, grassland and crop plant were selected to calculate carbon carrying capacity. The study relied on data from 2008 to 2017 for analysis and arrived at the conclusion that Yunnan's carbon footprint rose from 272.48 million tonnes in 2008 to 317.71 million tonnes in 2017. The result shows that the carbon carrying capacity of vegetation assumed an increasing trend from 339.52 million tonnes in 2008 to 416.30 million tonnes in 2017. The carbon pressure index was 0.80 in 2008 and 0.76 in 2017, showing a trend of first rising and then falling. This implies that Yunnan is carbon surplus and the level of carbon security is within the region of relatively safe. It is appropriate to improve upon the carbon carrying capacity and reduce the carbon footprint to maintain carbon security in the future.

环境承载能力和减少碳排放是生态脆弱地区面临的挑战。因此，对碳安全的评估势在必行。本文以云南为例，建立了碳足迹和植被碳承载力模型，以评估碳安全水平。采用国际公认的IPCC方法来计算碳足迹。选择森林，草原和农作物来计算碳的承载能力。该研究基于2008年至2017年的数据进行分析，得出的结论是，云南的碳足迹从2008年的2.7248亿吨增加到2017年的3.1771亿吨。结果表明，植被的碳承载力呈上升趋势，从339增长。2008年为5200万吨，2017年为4.163亿吨。碳压力指数在2008年为0.80，在2017年为0.76，呈现先升后降的趋势。这意味着云南是碳富余国，碳安全水平在相对安全的范围内。适当地提高碳的承载能力并减少碳足迹以保持未来的碳安全是适当的。