This paper analyzes the effect of users’ expectations on the dynamic process of users’ subscriptions based on the Bass model. We find that in all cases, the platform can make a successful launch if and only if the initial point is above the critical trajectory. If the probability that users on one side base their expectations on the number of subscribers on the same side is high, the launch of the platform will be easier when platform managers give priority to attracting users on this side. In addition, users’ expectations cannot change ex post equilibria when users are rational. However, if users on one side have pessimistic expectations, a high growth rate on this side makes it harder for the platform to launch.

本文基于Bass模型，分析了用户期望对用户订阅动态过程的影响。我们发现，在所有情况下，当且仅当起始点在关键轨迹之上时，平台才能成功启动。如果一侧的用户将期望值基于同一侧的订户数量的可能性很高，那么当平台管理者优先考虑吸引另一侧的用户时，平台的启动将变得更加容易。另外，当用户理性时，用户的期望不能在事后均衡上改变。但是，如果一侧的用户抱有悲观的期望，则这一侧的高增长率会使平台更难以启动。