当前位置: X-MOL 学术Math. Biosci. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
When is SARS-CoV-2 in your shopping list?
Mathematical Biosciences ( IF 1.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-28 , DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2020.108434
Gustavo Hernandez-Mejia 1 , Esteban A Hernandez-Vargas 2
Affiliation  

The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused several million confirmed cases worldwide. The necessity of keeping open and accessible public commercial establishments such as supermarkets or pharmacies increases during the pandemic provided that distancing rules and crowd control are satisfied. Herein, using agent-based models, we explore the potential spread of the novel SARS-CoV-2 considering the case of a small size supermarket. For diverse distancing rules and number of simultaneous users (customers), we question flexible and limited movement policies, guiding the flow and interactions of users in place. Results indicate that a guided, limited in movement and well-organized policy combined with a distance rule of at least 1 m and a small number of users may aid in the mitigation of potential new contagions in more than 90% compared to the usual policy of flexible movement with more users which may reach up to 64% of mitigation of potential new infections under the same distancing conditions. This study may guide novel strategies for the mitigation of the current COVID-19 pandemic, at any stage, and prevention of future outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 or related viruses.



中文翻译:

SARS-CoV-2 何时出现在您的购物清单中?

2019 年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 的大流行已在全球范围内造成数百万确诊病例。在大流行期间,只要满足距离规则和人群控制,保持超市或药店等公共商业场所开放和无障碍的必要性就会增加。在此,我们使用基于代理的模型,考虑小型超市的情况,探索新型 SARS-CoV-2 的潜在传播。对于不同的距离规则和同时用户(顾客)的数量,我们质疑灵活和有限的移动政策,引导用户就地流动和互动。结果表明,与通常的政策相比,有指导的、限制活动的、组织良好的政策,加上至少 1 m 的距离规则和少量用户,可能有助于减轻 90% 以上的潜在新传染病。更多用户的灵活移动,在相同距离条件下,潜在新感染的缓解率最高可达 64%。这项研究可以为在任何阶段缓解当前 COVID-19 大流行以及预防 SARS-CoV-2 或相关病毒未来爆发的新策略提供指导。

更新日期:2020-08-06
down
wechat
bug