当前位置: X-MOL 学术Chaos Solitons Fractals › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
On forecasting the spread of the COVID-19 in Iran: The second wave.
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals ( IF 7.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-28 , DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110176
Behzad Ghanbari 1, 2
Affiliation  

One of the common misconceptions about COVID-19 disease is to assume that we will not see a recurrence after the first wave of the disease has subsided. This completely wrong perception causes people to disregard the necessary protocols and engage in some misbehavior, such as routine socializing or holiday travel. These conditions will put double pressure on the medical staff and endanger the lives of many people around the world. In this research, we are interested in analyzing the existing data to predict the number of infected people in the second wave of out-breaking COVID-19 in Iran. For this purpose, a model is proposed. The mathematical analysis corresponded to the model is also included in this paper. Based on proposed numerical simulations, several scenarios of progress of COVID-19 corresponding to the second wave of the disease in the coming months, will be discussed. We predict that the second wave of will be most severe than the first one. From the results, improving the recovery rate of people with weak immune systems via appropriate medical incentives is resulted as one of the most effective prescriptions to prevent the widespread unbridled outbreak of the second wave of COVID-19.



中文翻译:

关于预测COVID-19在伊朗的扩散:第二波。

关于COVID-19疾病的常见误解之一是假设在第一波疾病消退后我们不会再见到复发。这种完全错误的认识会导致人们无视必要的协议,而从事一些不正常的行为,例如日常社交或度假旅行。这些条件将给医护人员带来双重压力,并危及全世界许多人的生命。在这项研究中,我们有兴趣分析现有数据,以预测伊朗第二次爆发COVID-19浪潮中的感染人数。为此,提出了一种模型。与模型相对应的数学分析也包括在本文中。根据建议的数值模拟,将讨论与未来几个月第二波疾病相对应的COVID-19进展的几种情况。我们预测第二波将比第一波最严重。结果表明,通过适当的医学诱因提高免疫系统较弱的人的康复率是防止第二波COVID-19广泛肆无忌out地爆发的最有效处方之一。

更新日期:2020-08-05
down
wechat
bug