Abstract

A statistical model for the formation of climate-related hazards is proposed. The formation is described by several meteorological variables or applied climatic indices characterizing a calendar year. Their values or data for their calculation are provided by climate monitoring systems. A climate-related hazard arises when these variables or applied climate indices together go beyond their safe ranges over substantial number of several consecutive years. Respective minimum values for the number of such years are substantiated for different levels of the likelihood of occurrence of a climate-related hazard. The developed methodology was applied to obtain probabilistic estimates of the climatic range of the tick Ixodes ricinus (Linnaeus, 1758), a vector of dangerous human diseases, and its changes in 2001–2010 as compared to 1971–1980. The results are presented in the form of schematic maps.

中文翻译：

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基于气候监测数据的气候相关危害形成评估统计模型

摘要

提出了一种与气候有关的危害形成的统计模型。地层由几个气象变量或应用的气候指数来描述一个日历年。它们的值或用于计算的数据由气候监测系统提供。当这些变量或应用的气候指数连续数年超过安全范围时，就会出现与气候有关的危害。根据与气候相关的危害发生的可能性的不同水平，确定了此类年份的相应最小值。在发达的方法适用于获得蜱的气候范围内的概率估计篦子硬蜱（Linnaeus，1758年）是人类危险疾病的媒介，其在2001–2010年与1971–1980年相比发生了变化。结果以示意图的形式呈现。