Abstract

Due to the fact that the recent decades have become the warmest in the history of meteorological observations for the territory of Northern Eurasia, it is relevant to assess the long-term variability of the convective potential of the atmosphere in changing climate. The spatiotemporal dynamics of the characteristics of atmospheric instability and the frequency of occurrence of convective hazards such as thunderstorm and hail in Western Siberia are analyzed. The northward displacement of the boundaries of active convection estimated by the temperature and humidity parameters of the atmosphere has been registered in the recent decade. The duration of the thunderstorm season and the number of days with a thunderstorm per year increased, as well as the number of days with durable hail and large hail. The height of cumulonimbus clouds generated by vast thunderstorm cells is determined.

中文翻译：

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气候变化下西西伯利亚大气对流潜力的评估

摘要

由于近几十年来对北欧亚大陆领土的气象观测史上最温暖，因此评估气候变化中大气对流潜力的长期变化具有重要意义。分析了西伯利亚西部大气不稳定特征的时空动态和对流灾害（如雷暴和冰雹）的发生频率。在最近的十年中，已经记录了通过大气温度和湿度参数估计的对流边界向北位移。雷暴季节的持续时间和每年发生雷暴的天数增加，同时出现持续冰雹和大雹的天数增加。