Abstract

The feasibility of applying probabilistic regional climate projection approach for mass ensemble simulations at the 25-km resolution across Russia is considered. Major attention is paid to the analysis of future changes in climate indicators of temperature and precipitation conditions, which significantly affect the operation reliability of constructions and technical systems including transport and energy infrastructure facilities. Along with the mean estimates, we used the frequency criteria which allow quantifying the estimates of return periods for various-intensity extreme events in the middle and end of the 21st century. The results of the study may be considered as an information basis for the development of adaptation programs for the Russian economy.

中文翻译：

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概率性区域气候预测作为制定俄罗斯联邦经济适应计划的基础

摘要

考虑了在整个俄罗斯以25 km的分辨率应用概率区域气候投影方法进行大规模整体模拟的可行性。要特别注意分析温度和降水条件的气候指标的未来变化，这将严重影响包括运输和能源基础设施在内的建筑和技术系统的运行可靠性。除了平均估计值外，我们还使用了频率准则，可以量化21世纪中叶和下旬各种强度极端事件返回期的估计值。研究的结果可以被认为是为俄罗斯经济制定适应计划的信息基础。