Abstract

Satellite data on methane concentration in the lower troposphere and the dynamical permafrost model are used to analyze methane emissions in the permafrost zone. The sources of methane generation in different biochemical conditions in the river valleys, thermokarst lakes, wetlands, and lowlands are studied. The statistical relationships between their intensity and air temperature, precipitation, active layer thickness, and permafrost temperature are evaluated. The CMIP5 ensemble climate projection is used to estimate methane emission in the permafrost regions for the mid-21st century. Numerical experiments with the INM-CM48 Earth system model demonstrated that the projected 20 Tg/year increase in the methane emission will lead to less than 0.05°C global temperature rise. The uncertainty analysis of the results is accomplished and an alternative conceptual model of abrupt threshold changes in methane emission is proposed.

中文翻译：

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俄罗斯多年冻土区的甲烷排放及其对全球气候影响的评估

摘要

关于对流层下层甲烷浓度的卫星数据和动力多年冻土模型用于分析多年冻土带中的甲烷排放。研究了河谷，热喀斯特湖，湿地和低地中不同生化条件下甲烷的产生来源。评估了它们的强度与空气温度，降水量，活性层厚度和多年冻土温度之间的统计关系。CMIP5整体气候预测用于估算21世纪中叶多年冻土地区的甲烷排放。使用INM-CM48地球系统模型进行的数值实验表明，预计甲烷排放量每年增加20 Tg，将导致全球温度升高不到0.05°C。