Wetland conservation increasingly must account for climate change and legacies of previous land-use practices. Playa wetlands provide critical wildlife habitat, but may be impacted by intensifying droughts and previous hydrologic modifications. To inform playa restoration planning, we asked: (1) what are the trends in playa inundation? (2) what are the factors influencing inundation? (3) how is playa inundation affected by increasingly severe drought? (4) do certain playas provide hydrologic refugia during droughts, and (5) if so, how are refugia patterns related to historical modifications? Using remotely sensed surface-water data, we evaluated a 30-year time series (1985–2015) of inundation for 153 playas of the Great Basin, USA. Inundation likelihood and duration increased with wetter weather conditions and were greater in modified playas. Inundation probability was projected to decrease from 22% under average conditions to 11% under extreme drought, with respective annual inundation decreasing from 1.7 to 0.9 months. Only 4% of playas were inundated for at least 2 months in each of the 5 driest years, suggesting their potential as drought refugia. Refugial playas were larger and more likely to have been modified, possibly because previous land managers selected refugial playas for modification. These inundation patterns can inform efforts to restore wetland functions and to conserve playa habitats as climate conditions change.

越来越多的湿地保护必须考虑到气候变化和以前土地使用惯例的遗留问题。普拉亚湿地提供了重要的野生动植物栖息地，但可能受到干旱加剧和以前的水文改良的影响。为了告知普拉亚恢复计划，我们问：（1）普拉亚淹没的趋势是什么？（2）哪些因素会影响淹没？（3）越来越严重的干旱如何影响滩涂的泛滥？（4）某些普拉亚斯在干旱期间是否提供水文避难所；（5）如果是，避难所的模式与历史变迁有何关系？利用遥感的地表水数据，我们评估了美国大盆地153个滩涂的30年时间序列（1985-2015年）。随着天气变湿，淹没的可能性和持续时间会增加，而经过改良的滩涂则会更大。预计淹没概率将从平均条件下的22％降低到极端干旱下的11％，而每年的淹没率将从1.7个月减少到0.9个月。在最干旱的5年中，每年至少有2％的普拉亚草被淹没至少2个月，这表明它们有可能成为干旱避难所。避难所规模更大，更可能被修改，这可能是因为以前的土地管理人员选择了避难所进行修改。随着气候条件的变化，这些淹没模式可以为恢复湿地功能和保护海滩栖息地提供信息。在最干旱的5年中，每年至少有2％的普拉亚草被淹没至少2个月，这表明它们有可能成为干旱避难所。避难所规模更大，更可能被修改，这可能是因为以前的土地管理人员选择了避难所进行修改。随着气候条件的变化，这些淹没模式可以为恢复湿地功能和保护海滩栖息地提供信息。在最干旱的5年中，每年至少有2％的普拉亚草被淹没至少2个月，这表明它们有可能成为干旱避难所。避难所规模更大，更可能被修改，这可能是因为以前的土地管理人员选择了避难所进行修改。随着气候条件的变化，这些淹没模式可以为恢复湿地功能和保护海滩栖息地提供信息。