Costs of tidal stream energy generation are anticipated to fall considerably with array expansion and time. This is due to both economies of volume, where arrays comprising of large numbers of turbines can split fixed costs over a greater number of devices, and learning rates, where the industry matures and so arrays of the same size become cheaper due to lessons learned from previous installations. This paper investigates how tidal energy arrays can be designed to minimize the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), by optimizing not only the location but also the number of devices, to find a suitable balance between decreased costs due to economies of volume and diminishing returns due to global blockage effects. It focuses on the Alderney Race as a case study site due to the high velocities found there, making it a highly suitable site for large-scale arrays. It is demonstrated that between 1 and 2 GW could be feasibly extracted as costs in the tidal industry fall, with the LCOE depending greatly on the assumed costs. A Monte–Carlo analysis is undertaken to account for variability in capital and operational cost data used as inputs to the array optimization. Once optimized, the estimated P50 LCOE of an 80 MW array is £110/MWh. This estimate aligns closely with the level of subsidy considered for tidal stream projects in the Alderney Race in the past. This article is part of the theme issue ‘New insights on tidal dynamics and tidal energy harvesting in the Alderney Race’.

中文翻译：

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通过优化平准化能源成本，在奥尔德尼岛竞赛中确定经济上可行的潮汐地点

随着阵列扩展和时间的推移，潮汐能发电的成本预计将大幅下降。这是由于体积经济（由大量涡轮机组成的阵列可以将固定成本分摊到更多设备上）和学习率（行业成熟，因此相同尺寸的阵列由于从中吸取的经验教训而变得更便宜）以前的安装。本文研究了如何设计潮汐能阵列以最大限度地降低平准化能源成本 (LCOE)，不仅优化位置，还优化设备数量，以在因体积经济而降低的成本和收益递减之间找到合适的平衡由于全局阻塞效应。由于在那里发现的高速，它专注于奥尔德尼岛比赛作为案例研究地点，使其成为非常适合大规模阵列的站点。事实证明，随着潮汐行业成本的下降，可以可行地提取 1 到 2 GW 的电力，而 LCOE 很大程度上取决于假设的成本。进行蒙特卡罗分析以解释用作阵列优化输入的资本和运营成本数据的可变性。优化后，80 MW 阵列的估计 P50 LCOE 为 110 英镑/MWh。这一估计与过去奥尔德尼岛赛马会潮汐项目考虑的补贴水平非常吻合。本文是主题问题“奥尔德尼岛竞赛中潮汐动力学和潮汐能收集的新见解”的一部分。进行蒙特卡罗分析以解释用作阵列优化输入的资本和运营成本数据的可变性。优化后，80 MW 阵列的估计 P50 LCOE 为 110 英镑/MWh。这一估计与过去奥尔德尼岛赛马会潮汐项目考虑的补贴水平非常吻合。本文是主题问题“奥尔德尼岛竞赛中潮汐动力学和潮汐能收集的新见解”的一部分。进行蒙特卡罗分析以解释用作阵列优化输入的资本和运营成本数据的可变性。优化后，80 MW 阵列的估计 P50 LCOE 为 110 英镑/MWh。这一估计与过去奥尔德尼岛赛马会潮汐项目考虑的补贴水平非常吻合。本文是主题问题“奥尔德尼岛竞赛中潮汐动力学和潮汐能收集的新见解”的一部分。