We model the extent to which age-targeted protective sequestration can be used to reduce ICU admissions caused by novel coronavirus COVID-19. Using demographic data from New Zealand, we demonstrate that lowering the age threshold to 50 years of age reduces ICU admissions drastically and show that for sufficiently strict isolation protocols, sequestering one-third of the countries population for a total of 8 months is sufficient to avoid overwhelming ICU capacity throughout the entire course of the epidemic. Similar results are expected to hold for other countries, though some minor adaption will be required based on local age demographics and hospital facilities.

我们对以年龄为目标的保护性隔离可减少新的冠状病毒COVID-19引起的ICU入院的程度进行建模。使用来自新西兰的人口统计数据，我们证明将年龄阈值降低到50岁可以大大降低ICU的住院率，并表明，对于足够严格的隔离协议，将三分之一的国家/地区人口共隔离8个月就足以避免在整个流行过程中，ICU的容量都无法承受。预计其他国家也会有类似的结果，尽管根据当地年龄人口和医院设施的要求可能会稍作调整。