The economic impacts of animal disease outbreaks have been widely discussed in the literature. Most authors have centred their attention on estimating the direct costs. Recent studies have shown that the indirect economic effects might lead to equal or even higher welfare losses. This study aims to contribute to this field of research by assessing the effect of an animal disease outbreak on food market price dynamics in Mexico, accounting for the potential effect of an antitrust intervention. We employ a regime‐dependent vector error correction model and a connected scatterplot analysis. The results show that both the outbreak and the antitrust intervention caused structural breaks in food market price dynamics between producers and consumers, reflected in an increase in the absolute component of the marketing margin, with serious food security implications.

中文翻译：

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动物疾病暴发和食品市场价格动态：来自依赖制度的建模和相关散点图的证据

动物疾病暴发的经济影响已在文献中广泛讨论。大多数作者将注意力集中在估计直接成本上。最近的研究表明，间接的经济影响可能导致同等甚至更高的福利损失。这项研究旨在通过评估动物疾病暴发对墨西哥食品市场价格动态的影响，并考虑到反托拉斯干预的潜在影响，为这一研究领域做出贡献。我们采用依赖于制度的矢量误差校正模型和关联的散点图分析。结果表明，疫情暴发和反托拉斯干预都导致生产者和消费者之间食品市场价格动态的结构性断裂，这反映在销售利润率绝对成分的增加上，