Understanding invasive species spread and projecting how distributions will respond to climate change is a central task for ecologists. Typically, current and projected air temperatures are used to forecast future distributions of invasive species based on climate matching in an ecological niche modeling approach. While this approach was originally developed for terrestrial species, it has also been widely applied to aquatic species even though aquatic species do not experience air temperatures directly. In the case of lakes, species respond to lake thermal regimes, which reflect the interaction of climate and lake attributes such as depth, size, and clarity. The result is that adjacent waterbodies can differ notably in thermal regime. Given these obvious limitations of modeling aquatic species distributions using climate data, we take advantage of recent advances in simulating lake thermal regimes to model the distributions of invasive spiny water flea (Bythotrephes cederströmii) for current and projected future climates in the upper Midwest of the USA. We compared predictions and future projections from models based on modeled air temperatures with models based on modeled water temperature. All models predicted that the number of suitable lakes in the region will decrease with climate change. Models based on air and water temperature differed dramatically in the extent of this decrease. The air temperature model predicted 89% of study lakes to be suitable, with suitability declining dramatically in the late century with climate warming to just a single suitable lake. Lake suitability predictions from the water temperature model declined to a much lesser degree with warming (42% of lakes were predicted to be suitable, declining to 19% in the late century) and were more spatially independent. Our results expose the limitations of using air temperatures to model habitat suitability for aquatic species, and our study further highlights the importance of understanding lake‐specific responses to climate when assessing aquatic species responses to climate change. While we project a contraction in the potential range of Bythotrephes with warming in the study region, we anticipate that Bythotrephes will likely continue to expand into new lakes that will remain suitable in the following decades.

中文翻译：

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比较使用空气和水温预测水生入侵物种对气候变化的响应的模型

了解入侵物种的扩散并预测分布将如何应对气候变化是生态学家的一项中心任务。通常，在生态位建模方法中，基于气候匹配，使用当前和预计的气温来预测入侵物种的未来分布。尽管此方法最初是为陆生物种开发的，但即使水生物种不会直接经历气温，它也已广泛应用于水生物种。就湖泊而言，物种对湖泊的热状态做出反应，这反映了气候与湖泊属性（如深度，大小和净度）之间的相互作用。结果是，相邻的水体在热状况上可能存在显着差异。鉴于使用气候数据模拟水生物种分布存在明显的局限性，拜索菲斯·塞德斯特罗米），以了解美国中西部上部地区当前和未来的气候。我们将基于建模空气温度的模型的预测和未来预测与基于建模水温的模型进行了比较。所有模型都预测该地区合适的湖泊数量将随着气候变化而减少。基于空气和水温的模型的下降幅度差异很大。空气温度模型预测89％的研究湖泊是合适的，随着气候变暖只适合一个湖泊，适应性在下世纪末急剧下降。水温模型对湖泊适宜性的预测随着变暖的程度下降的程度要小得多（据预测，有42％的湖泊是适宜的，到本世纪末下降到19％），并且在空间上更加独立。我们的结果暴露了使用空气温度来模拟生境对水生物种的适应性的局限性，我们的研究进一步强调了在评估水生物种对气候变化的响应时，应了解湖泊对气候的响应的重要性。虽然我们预计收缩的潜在范围是Bythotrephes与研究区升温，我们预计Bythotrephes可能会继续扩展到新的湖泊将继续适用于下列几十年。