Predictions of the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides accidentally released from a nuclear power plant are influenced by two large sources of uncertainty: one associated with the meteorological data employed, and one with the source term, i.e. the temporal evolution of the amount and physical and chemical properties of the release. A methodology is presented for quantitative estimation of the variability of the prediction of atmospheric dispersion resulting from both sources of uncertainty. The methodology, which allows for efficient calculation, and thus is well suited for real-time assessment, is applied to a hypothetical accidental release of radionuclides.

中文翻译：

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核事故中大气扩散模型的不确定性。

从核电厂意外释放的放射性核素在大气中的扩散预测受两个不确定性因素的影响：一个不确定因素与所采用的气象数据有关，另一个不确定因素与污染源的术语有关，即量的时间演变以及理化性质版本。提出了一种方法，用于定量估计由两种不确定性来源引起的大气扩散预测的可变性。该方法可进行有效的计算，因此非常适合实时评估，该方法可用于放射性核素的假定意外释放。