Abstract This study proposes a novel method to assess the overall economic effects of agricultural droughts using a coupled agronomic-economic approach that accounts for the direct and indirect impacts of this hazard in the economy. The proposed methodology is applied to Italy, where years showing different drought severity levels were analysed. Agricultural drought stress was measured using the fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR). Using a comprehensive, field-level dataset on agricultural yields, fAPAR-based statistical models were applied to major Italian crops and direct crop productivity impacts were estimated. Local-level, crop-dependent productivity shocks were fed into a regionalised Computable General Equilibrium model specifically calibrated for the Italian economy. Direct and indirect aggregate impacts after allowing for inter-regional trade and input reallocation were obtained. Total estimated damages ranged from 0.55 to 1.75 billion euro, depending on the overall drought severity experienced, while regional losses showed large spatial variability. Although most of the losses were concentrated on agriculture, other related sectors, such as food industry manufacturing and wholesale services, were also substantially affected. Moreover, our simulations suggested the presence of a land-use substitution effect from less to more drought-resistant crops following a drought. This study sheds light on the characterisation of the total damages caused by droughts while provides a tool with applicability in the implementation of drought risk management plans and the evaluation of drought management policies.

中文翻译：

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估算农业干旱成本的综合方法

摘要 本研究提出了一种新方法来评估农业干旱的整体经济影响，该方法使用耦合的农艺经济方法来解释这种灾害对经济的直接和间接影响。建议的方法应用于意大利，在那里分析了显示不同干旱严重程度的年份。使用吸收光合有效辐射 (fAPAR) 的分数来测量农业干旱胁迫。使用关于农业产量的综合性田间数据集，基于 fAPAR 的统计模型被应用于意大利的主要作物，并估计了对作物生产力的直接影响。地方层面的、依赖于作物的生产力冲击被输入到一个区域化的可计算一般均衡模型中，该模型专门针对意大利经济进行了校准。获得了允许区域间贸易和投入重新分配后的直接和间接综合影响。估计损失总额为 0.55 至 17.5 亿欧元，具体取决于所经历的整体干旱严重程度，而区域损失则显示出很大的空间变异性。虽然大部分损失集中在农业，但其他相关部门，如食品工业制造和批发服务，也受到了重大影响。此外，我们的模拟表明，在干旱后，土地利用替代效应从抗旱性较低的作物变为抗旱性较强的作物。本研究阐明了干旱造成的总损失的特征，同时为干旱风险管理计划的实施和干旱管理政策的评估提供了一种适用的工具。