Abstract Urbanisation has significantly influenced socioeconomic development while land transfer, as a carrier, has played an important role in the process of urbanisation. However, urbanisation has led to an unbalanced development of regional cities and a widening gap between rich and poor. We explored the influence mechanism of land transfer on urban development by quantitative and qualitative investigations of land benefits. Firstly, we employed game theory to analyse the relationships among the government, developers, and consumers. Developers have been the greatest beneficiaries of land transfers, whereas the consumers’ interests have mostly been affected negatively. Then, we applied a coupling coordination model to 21 cities located along the Beijing–Hangzhou Grand Canal to verify the theoretical mechanism and analyse the relationship between land transfers and urban socioeconomic benefits. The results show that government-led and market-led land transfers could promote urban development. The latter could be more sustainable than the former. For the sustainable development of land transfers and urban–rural integration, the government should control land prices and regulate the relationships between developers and consumers by formulating laws and reforming land systems.

中文翻译：

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国有土地使用权出让是促进还是制约城市发展？

摘要 城镇化对社会经济发展产生了重大影响，而土地流转作为载体在城镇化进程中发挥着重要作用。然而，城市化导致区域城市发展不平衡，贫富差距拉大。我们通过土地收益的定量和定性调查，探索土地流转对城市发展的影响机制。首先，我们运用博弈论来分析政府、开发商和消费者之间的关系。开发商是土地流转的最大受益者，而消费者的利益则主要受到负面影响。然后，我们应用耦合协调模型对京杭大运河沿线的 21 个城市进行理论机制验证，分析土地流转与城市社会经济效益之间的关系。结果表明，政府主导和市场主导的土地流转可以促进城市发展。后者可能比前者更具可持续性。为了土地流转和城乡一体化的可持续发展，政府应该通过制定法律和改革土地制度来控制土地价格，规范开发商和消费者之间的关系。