Uncertainty analysis is a key element of sound techno-economic analysis (TEA) of CO₂ Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies and systems, and in the communication of TEA results. Many CCS technologies are relatively novel, with only few large-scale projects constructed and in operation to date. Therefore, uncertainties in technology performance and costs are often substantial, making it imperative that they be characterized and reported. Although uncertainty analysis itself is not novel, with some methods already frequently used by the CCS TEA community, a document that provides a comprehensive overview of methods and approaches, as well as guidance on their selection and use, is still lacking. Given its importance, we seek to fill this gap by providing a critical review of uncertainty analysis methods along with guidance on the selection and use of these methods for CCS TEAs, highlighting good practice and examples from the CCS literature. The paper starts by identifying the different audiences for CCS TEAs, the different modelling approaches available for CCS technology performance and cost analysis, and the different roles that uncertainty analysis may play. It then continues to discuss established, as well as emerging, uncertainty analysis methods and addresses how and when each method is best used, as well as common pitfalls. We argue that the most commonly used method of one-parameter-at-a-time ‘local’ sensitivity analysis may often be a suboptimal choice, and that other approaches may be more suitable or lead to more insight, especially since uncertainty analysis software is becoming more widespread and easier to use. Finally, the paper discusses the benefits of advanced uses of uncertainty analysis in, for instance, the design of CCS experiments or in the design and planning of CCS infrastructure. Sound uncertainty analysis has an important role to play in TEAs of CCS technologies and systems, and there are many opportunities to bring the use of uncertainty analysis to a higher level than currently practiced. This review of and guidance on available methods is intended to help accelerate continued methods development and their application to more robust and meaningful CCS performance and costing studies.

不确定性分析是CO ₂合理技术经济分析（TEA）的关键要素捕获和存储（CCS）技术和系统，以及TEA结果的交流。许多CCS技术都是相对新颖的，迄今为止只有很少的大型项目已经建成并投入运营。因此，技术性能和成本的不确定性通常很大，因此必须对其进行表征和报告。尽管不确定性分析本身并不新颖，但是CCS TEA社区已经使用了一些常用方法，但仍缺少一份提供有关方法和方法的全面概述以及其选择和使用指南的文档。鉴于其重要性，我们试图通过对不确定性分析方法进行严格审查，以及为CCS TEA选择和使用这些方法提供指导，以填补这一空白，重点介绍CCS文献中的良好做法和示例。本文从确定CCS TEA的不同受众，CCS技术性能和成本分析可用的不同建模方法以及不确定性分析可能发挥的不同作用开始。然后，它将继续讨论已建立的以及正在出现的不确定性分析方法，并讨论如何以及何时最好地使用每种方法以及常见的陷阱。我们认为，一次使用一次参数“局部”敏感性分析的最常用方法通常可能是次优选择，而其他方法可能更合适或导致更多的见解，尤其是因为不确定性分析软件变得更加普及和易于使用。最后，本文讨论了不确定性分析的高级使用在以下方面的好处：例如CCS实验的设计或CCS基础设施的设计和规划。合理的不确定性分析在CCS技术和系统的TEA中扮演着重要角色，并且有很多机会将不确定性分析的使用提高到比目前更高的水平。对可用方法的审查和指导旨在帮助加快方法的持续开发及其在更强大和有意义的CCS性能和成本研究中的应用。