Ebola outbreaks in Africa have occurred mostly in the Central and West Africa regions that are politically identified as the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) and Economic Community of Western African States (ECOWAS), respectively. In the ECOWAS region, people and goods are allowed to travel freely across national borders of all the 15 member countries, but in the ECCAS region such regional travel across the national borders of its 10 member countries is limited. In this paper, we use parameterized mathematical models of Ebola to investigate the effects of free international travel, and the timing of border closings, on the high number of Ebola infection cases and deaths of the recent 2014–2016 Ebola outbreaks in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone (ECOWAS); as compared to previous and current outbreaks in Democratic Republic of Congo (ECCAS, 1976–2018). Simulations of our single-patch Ebola model without movement of humans across international borders are shown to capture the recorded numbers of Ebola infections and deaths in the ECCAS region, and simulations of our 3-patch model with interpatch movements capture that of the ECOWAS region. We obtain that international travel restrictions and timing of border closings can play important roles in mitigating against the spread of future fatal infectious disease outbreaks.

中文翻译：

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埃博拉疫情和国际旅行限制：中非和西非地区的案例研究

非洲的埃博拉疫情主要发生在中非和西非地区，这些地区在政治上分别被确定为中非国家经济共同体（ECCAS）和西非国家经济共同体（ECOWAS）。在西非经共体地区，人员和货物可以自由跨越所有 15 个成员国的国界，但在 ECCAS 地区，这种跨越其 10 个成员国国界的地区性旅行受到限制。在本文中，我们使用参数化的埃博拉数学模型来调查免费国际旅行和边境关闭时间对最近 2014-2016 年几内亚、利比里亚和塞拉利昂（西非经共体）；与刚果民主共和国以前和当前的疫情相比（ECCAS，1976-2018）。我们的单斑块埃博拉模型模拟显示没有人类跨越国际边界的移动，以捕捉记录在 ECCAS 地区的埃博拉病毒感染和死亡人数，而我们的 3 斑块模型的模拟捕捉了西非经共体地区的斑块间移动。我们了解到，国际旅行限制和边境关闭时间可以在减缓未来致命传染病爆发的蔓延方面发挥重要作用。我们的 3 补丁模型与斑块间运动的模拟捕获了西非经共体地区的模型。我们了解到，国际旅行限制和边境关闭时间可以在减缓未来致命传染病爆发的蔓延方面发挥重要作用。我们的 3 补丁模型与斑块间运动的模拟捕获了西非经共体地区的模型。我们了解到，国际旅行限制和边境关闭时间可以在减缓未来致命传染病爆发的蔓延方面发挥重要作用。