This study presents a new mathematical model for assessing the impact of sterile insect technology (SIT) and seasonal variation in local temperature on the population abundance of malaria mosquitoes in an endemic setting. Simulations of the model, using temperature data from Kipsamoite area of Kenya, show that a peak abundance of the mosquito population is attained in the Kipsamoite area when the mean monthly temperature reaches [Formula: see text]. Furthermore, in the absence of seasonal variation in local temperature, our results show that releasing more sterile male mosquitoes (e.g., 100,000) over a one year period with relatively short duration between releases (e.g., weekly, bi-weekly or even monthly) is more effective than releasing smaller numbers of the sterile male mosquitoes (e.g., 10,000) over the same implementation period and frequency of release. It is also shown that density-dependent larval mortality plays an important role in determining the threshold number of sterile male mosquitoes that need to be released in order to achieve effective control (or elimination) of the mosquito population in the community. In particular, low(high) density-dependent mortality requires high(low) numbers of sterile male mosquitoes to be released to achieve such control. In the presence of seasonal variation in local temperature, effective control of the mosquito population using SIT is only feasible if a large number of the sterile male mosquitoes (e.g., 100,000) is periodically released within a very short time interval (at most weekly). In other words, seasonal variation in temperature necessitates more frequent releases (of a large number) of sterile male mosquitoes to ensure the effectiveness of the SIT intervention in curtailing the targeted mosquito population.

中文翻译：

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不育雄性蚊子周期性释放和季节性对疟蚊种群丰度影响的数学模型

本研究提出了一个新的数学模型，用于评估昆虫不育技术 (SIT) 和当地温度的季节性变化对流行环境中疟蚊种群丰度的影响。使用肯尼亚 Kipsamoite 地区的温度数据对模型进行的模拟表明，当月平均温度达到 [公式：见正文] 时，Kipsamoite 地区的蚊子数量达到峰值。此外，在当地温度没有季节性变化的情况下，我们的结果表明，在一年内释放更多不育雄性蚊子（例如，100,000 只），释放间隔时间相对较短（例如，每周、每两周甚至每月）。比释放少量不育雄性蚊子（例如 10 只，000）在相同的实施周期和发布频率。它还表明，密度依赖性幼虫死亡率在确定需要释放的不育雄性蚊子的阈值数量方面起着重要作用，以实现对社区蚊子种群的有效控制（或消除）。特别是，低（高）密度依赖性死亡率需要释放高（低）数量的不育雄性蚊子以实现这种控制。在当地温度存在季节性变化的情况下，只有在非常短的时间间隔内（最多每周）定期释放大量不育雄性蚊子（例如，100,000 只）时，使用 SIT 有效控制蚊子种群才是可行的。换一种说法，