Supply chain finance is a new financing model tailored for small and medium-sized enterprises, which integrates capital flow into supply chain management, providing commercial trade capital services for enterprises in all aspects of the supply chain and providing new loan financing services for vulnerable enterprises in the supply chain. Fractal originally is a general term for a graph, structure or phenomenon that does not have a feature length but has a statistically significant self-similarity; fractal theory is an emerging edge science that describes the complex system with a random structure and has been widely used in physics, chemistry, geography, economics and many other fields. On the basis of summarizing and analyzing previous published literature works, this paper expounded the research situation and significance of risk measurement in supply chain finance, elaborated the development background, current status and future challenges of fractal theory, proposed the improved fractal volatility model and financial evaluation model, performed risk analysis of supply chain finance through evaluation modeling and elastic fractal dimension, constructed a financial risk measurement model based on fractal theory, and discussed the importance of model parameter estimation, residual test and accuracy examination in risk measurement of supply chain finance. The final empirical analysis shows that the improved fractal volatility model and the proposed financial risk measurement model has better risk measurement ability under different out-of-sample prediction periods, and obtain more accurate conclusion of asymmetry determination of financial assets gains under the common inspection level. The study results of this paper provide a reference for the further researches on risk measurement of supply chain finance based on fractal theory.

中文翻译：

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基于分形理论的供应链金融风险计量研究

供应链金融是为中小企业量身打造的新型融资模式，将资金流融入供应链管理，为供应链各环节的企业提供商业贸易资金服务，为弱势企业提供新型贷款融资服务。供应链。分形原本是对没有特征长度但具有统计显着自相似性的图形、结构或现象的总称；分形理论是一门新兴的边缘科学，描述具有随机结构的复杂系统，已广泛应用于物理、化学、地理、经济等诸多领域。在对以往发表的文学作品进行总结和分析的基础上，阐述了供应链金融中风险计量的研究现状和意义，阐述了分形理论的发展背景、现状和未来挑战，提出了改进的分形波动率模型和金融评价模型，通过评价对供应链金融进行风险分析。建模和弹性分形维数，构建了基于分形理论的金融风险计量模型，探讨了模型参数估计、残差检验和准确性检验在供应链金融风险计量中的重要性。最终实证分析表明，改进的分形波动率模型和所提出的金融风险计量模型在不同的样本外预测周期下具有更好的风险计量能力，并在共同检查水平下获得更准确的金融资产收益不对称确定结论。本文的研究结果为进一步研究基于分形理论的供应链金融风险测度提供了参考。