Increases in global mean temperature, changes in rainfall patterns, and extreme climatic events are expected results of climate change. The individual effects of elevated temperature and precipitation on insect pests due to the impact of climate change have been widely modeled individually but their combined effects are poorly understood. Ten years of monthly abundance of an important economic rice insect pest, the rice yellow stem borer (YSB), Scirpophaga incertulas Walker (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), was modeled in relation to temperature and rainfall using cross-correlation functions, general linear models, ARIMA models and simple linear regressions. The results suggested that increasing temperature and rainfall separately had a positive effect on growth rate of YSB. However, the combined effect of high temperature and rainfall was negative Temperature affected abundance of YSB negatively at high rainfall, but positively at intermediate to low rainfall level. The growth rate of YSB was found to be high at relatively low temperature and abundant rainfall. The combined effects of temperature and rainfall showed a quadratic response of YSB abundance, which indicated that outbreak risk of YSB may be reduced if climate change results in increasing temperature and rainfall. It should be noted that we could address only a few of the important factors which could influence our model prediction.

中文翻译：

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水稻害虫Scripophaga incertulas（鳞翅目：Pyralidae）在温暖世界的反应

全球平均温度的升高，降雨模式的变化以及极端气候事件是气候变化的预期结果。由于气候变化的影响，高温和降水对害虫的单独影响已被广泛地单独建模，但对它们的综合影响知之甚少。使用互相关函数，一般线性模型，ARIMA，对温度和降雨的关系，对重要的经济水稻害虫水稻黄茎bore（YSB），Sc翅目Scirpophaga incertulas Walker（鳞翅目：Pyralidae）的月度丰度进行了建模。模型和简单的线性回归。结果表明，温度和降雨的增加分别对YSB的增长率产生积极影响。然而，高温和降雨的综合影响为负。在高降雨条件下，温度对YSB丰度的影响为负，而在中低降雨水平则为正。发现在相对较低的温度和充足的降雨下，YSB的增长率很高。温度和降雨的综合影响显示出YSB丰度的二次响应，这表明如果气候变化导致温度和降雨增加，则可以降低YSB的暴发风险。应当指出，我们只能解决可能影响模型预测的一些重要因素。温度和降雨的综合影响显示出YSB丰度的二次响应，这表明如果气候变化导致温度和降雨增加，则可以降低YSB的暴发风险。应当指出，我们只能解决可能影响模型预测的一些重要因素。温度和降雨的综合影响显示出YSB丰度的二次响应，这表明如果气候变化导致温度和降雨增加，则可以降低YSB的暴发风险。应当指出，我们只能解决可能影响模型预测的一些重要因素。