ABSTRACT

Agriculture in Central Asia faces tremendous challenges due to climate change. International agricultural trade is seen in the literature as a potential adaption to climate change. However, little attention has been paid to the effect of climate change on cereal trade in Central Asia. This study takes Kazakhstan as an example to empirically analyze the effect of climate change on cereal trade by including them as determinants in the gravity model. Our results show that climatic changes in Kazakhstan, measured by precipitation and temperature, could increase the export of wheat and rice and the import of maize, and decrease the import of wheat. Specifically, as a major crop in Kazakhstan, increasing precipitation by 1 millimeter during the major cropping season from May to August, will significantly enhance export of wheat by 0.7% and reduce the import by 1.7%; increasing temperature by 1°C during the same cropping season will significantly increase export of wheat by 21.9% and reduce the import by 49.4%. As an important cereal trade country in the world, the dramatic adjustments of cereal trade patterns resulting from climate change in Kazakhstan might affect global food security.

摘要

由于气候变化，中亚的农业面临巨大挑战。国际农业贸易在文献中被视为对气候变化的潜在适应。但是，很少关注气候变化对中亚谷物贸易的影响。这项研究以哈萨克斯坦为例，通过将气候变化作为重力模型的决定因素纳入实证分析了气候变化对谷物贸易的影响。我们的结果表明，通过降水和温度来衡量哈萨克斯坦的气候变化可以增加小麦和大米的出口以及玉米的进口，并减少小麦的进口。具体来说，作为哈萨克斯坦的主要农作物，5月至8月的主要农作物季节的降水量增加1毫米，将使小麦的出口量显着增加0。7％，进口减少1.7％；在同一种植季节将温度提高1°C，将使小麦出口大幅增加21.9％，进口减少49.4％。作为世界上一个重要的谷物贸易国，哈萨克斯坦气候变化导致的谷物贸易方式的急剧调整可能会影响全球粮食安全。