ABSTRACT

In order to understand better on medium-and long-term climate change issues in international cooperation of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), this paper is meant to assess the implementation of National Determined Contributions (NDCs) of the BRI countries and the emission constraints under the Paris Agreement to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, based on the Belt and Road Integrated Assessment Model (BRIAM) and the best available data. The results show that the BRI countries are expected to collectively reduce about 3.2 billion tons of CO₂ emissions with the implementation of their NDCs by 2030. In order to achieve the global goal of 2°C, without appropriate mitigation burden sharing and enhanced climate finance support, the BRI countries will face big challenges to bridge the emission gaps. The investment in clean energy and related new infrastructures in BRI will rise sharply to above US$100 trillion by the end of this century accordingly with the increase in carbon price, which will also eventually have a significant impact on the price of electricity and oversea freight transport in a connecting world.

摘要

为了更好地理解``一带一路''倡议（BRI）国际合作中的中长期气候变化问题，本文旨在评估BRI国家的国家确定贡献（NDC）的实施情况和排放根据《一带一路》综合评估模型（BRIAM）和现有的最佳数据，《巴黎协定》规定的限制条件将全球平均温度的上升幅度控制在远低于工业化前水平2°C的水平。结果表明，“一带一路”沿线国家预计将共减少约32亿吨CO ₂到2030年实施国家自主贡献（NDCs）来实现减排目标。为了实现2°C的全球目标，如果没有适当的缓解负担分担和加强气候融资支持，“一带一路”沿线国家将面临弥合排放差距的巨大挑战。到本世纪末，随着碳价的上涨，“一带一路”倡议对清洁能源和相关新基础设施的投资将激增至100万亿美元以上，这最终还将对电价和海外货运产生重大影响在连接的世界中。