ABSTRACT

Sales surprise, the ratio of actual sales to forecasted sales for a year, is a key determinant of firms’ inventory turnover. While the previous literature on empirical inventory management frequently uses Holt's double exponential smoothing method for obtaining future sales forecasts, this method suffers from measurement error. In contrast, we directly use the data on management forecasts publicised by listed companies in manufacturing and retail industries for the fiscal years 1997 through 2014, which are available in Japan, and evaluate the adequacy of the exponential smoothing sales forecasts. Our analysis reveals that sales surprise measured via both means positively relates to inventory turnover in the majority of industries, consistent with previous literature; however, the two variables imply discrepancies, particularly when economic conditions change.

摘要

销售意外，即一年的实际销售额与预测销售额的比率，是决定公司存货周转率的关键因素。虽然以前关于经验库存管理的文献经常使用 Holt 的双指数平滑方法来获得未来的销售预测，但这种方法存在测量误差。相比之下，我们直接使用日本现有的制造业和零售业上市公司公布的 1997 至 2014 财年的经营预测数据，评估指数平滑销售预测的充分性。我们的分析表明，在大多数行业中，通过两种方式衡量的销售惊喜与库存周转率呈正相关，这与之前的文献一致；然而，这两个变量意味着差异，