In 2018, Europe experienced the warmest May–October (Northern Hemisphere warm season) since air temperature records began. In this study, we ran model simulations for 46 557 lakes across Europe to investigate the influence of this heatwave on surface water temperature. We validated the model with satellite-derived lake surface temperatures for 115 lakes from 1995 to 2018. Using the validated model, we demonstrated that, during May–October 2018, mean and maximum lake surface temperatures were 1.5 and 2.4 °C warmer than the base-period average (1981–2010). A lake model experiment demonstrated that, on average, the increase in air temperature was the dominant driver of surface water temperature change. However, in some lake regions, other meteorological forcing had a greater influence. Notably, higher than average solar radiation and lower than average wind speed exacerbated the influence of the heatwave on lake surface temperature in many regions, particularly Fennoscandia and Western Europe. To place our results in the context of projected 21st century climate change, we then ran the lake model with input data from state-of-the-art climate model projections under 3 emissions scenarios. Under the scenario with highest emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), we demonstrated that by the end of the 21st century, the lake surface temperatures that occurred during the heatwave of 2018 will become increasingly common across many lake regions in Europe.

自气温记录开始以来，欧洲在2018年经历了5月至10月（北半球最暖的季节）。在这项研究中，我们对欧洲46 557个湖泊进行了模型仿真，以研究热浪对地表水温的影响。我们使用卫星衍生的1995年至2018年湖泊的湖面温度验证了该模型。使用验证后的模型，我们证明了2018年5月至10月期间，平均和最高湖面温度分别比基准温度高1.5和2.4°C。周期平均值（1981年至2010年）。湖泊模型实验表明，平均而言，气温升高是地表水温变化的主要驱动因素。但是，在某些湖泊地区，其他气象强迫影响更大。值得注意的是 在许多地区，特别是芬诺斯坎迪亚和西欧，高于太阳的平均辐射强度和低于平均的风速加剧了热浪对湖泊表面温度的影响。为了将结果放在预计的21世纪气候变化的背景下，我们随后使用来自3种排放情景下最新技术模型预测的输入数据来运行湖泊模型。在排放量最高的情况下（代表性浓度路径8.5），我们证明，到21世纪末，在2018年热浪中发生的湖泊表面温度将在欧洲许多湖泊地区变得越来越普遍。为了将结果放在预计的21世纪气候变化的背景下，我们随后使用来自3种排放情景下最新技术模型预测的输入数据来运行湖泊模型。在排放量最高的情况下（代表性浓度路径8.5），我们证明，到21世纪末，2018年热浪期间发生的湖泊表面温度将在欧洲许多湖泊地区变得越来越普遍。为了将结果放在预计的21世纪气候变化的背景下，我们然后使用来自3种排放情景下最新气候模型预测的输入数据来运行湖泊模型。在排放量最高的情况下（代表性浓度路径8.5），我们证明，到21世纪末，2018年热浪期间发生的湖泊表面温度将在欧洲许多湖泊地区变得越来越普遍。