We estimate state-dependent government spending multipliers for the United States. We use an Interacted Vector Autoregression (IVAR) model to capture the time-varying monetary policy characteristics including the recent zero interest rate lower bound (ZLB) state. We identify government spending shocks by sign restrictions and use a government spending growth forecast series to account for the effects of anticipated fiscal policy. In our baseline specification we find that government spending multipliers range from 3.4 to 3.7 at the ZLB. Away from the ZLB, multipliers range from 1.5 to 2.7. Next, we address the limited information problem typically inherent in VARs by the help of a Factor-Augmented IVAR (FAIVAR). We find that multipliers are lower in this case, ranging from 2.0 to 2.1 at the ZLB and between 1.5 and 1.8 away from it. Thus, in both specifications we find that multipliers are higher, when the interest rate is lower. Our results are consistent with recent theories that predict larger multipliers at the ZLB.

中文翻译：

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零下限的政府支出乘数：来自美国的证据*

我们估计了美国依赖于州的政府支出乘数。我们使用交互向量自回归 (IVAR) 模型来捕捉随时间变化的货币政策特征，包括最近的零利率下限 (ZLB) 状态。我们通过符号限制识别政府支出冲击，并使用政府支出增长预测系列来解释预期财政政策的影响。在我们的基准规范中，我们发现 ZLB 的政府支出乘数范围为 3.4 到 3.7。远离 ZLB，乘数范围从 1.5 到 2.7。接下来，我们通过因子增强 IVAR (FAIVAR) 解决 VAR 中通常固有的有限信息问题。我们发现在这种情况下乘数较低，在 ZLB 处为 2.0 到 2.1，而在远离 ZLB 处为 1.5 到 1.8。因此，在这两个规范中，我们发现当利率较低时，乘数较高。我们的结果与最近预测 ZLB 的乘数更大的理论一致。