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Ocean/atmosphere interaction and Malthusian catastrophes on the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region in China, 1368–1911
Journal of Quaternary Science ( IF 1.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-11 , DOI: 10.1002/jqs.3232 Harry F. Lee 1 , Ricci P. H. Yue 1
Journal of Quaternary Science ( IF 1.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-11 , DOI: 10.1002/jqs.3232 Harry F. Lee 1 , Ricci P. H. Yue 1
Affiliation
How and to what extent are human societies affected by climate change? There has been a growing body of research using big historical data and statistical analyses to provide scientific answers to this inter‐disciplinary research question. However, quantitative analysis measuring the historical demographic impact of ocean/atmosphere interaction is still scanty. Here we use 544 years (1368–1911) of historical records to trace the demographic impact brought about by ocean/atmosphere interaction in Shaanxi, located on the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region in China. Our results show that: (1) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) caused Malthusian catastrophes mainly through drought at the inter‐annual scale; (2) drought reinforced the synchrony of various Malthusian catastrophes at the inter‐annual to multi‐decadal scale; and (3) the unusual cycles of NAO drove drought and various Malthusian catastrophes in the cold 1550–1730 period at the multi‐decadal scale. This study represents a pioneering attempt to quantitatively assess the demographic impact caused by the ocean/atmosphere in historical China. Our findings may help to conceptualise the climate–human nexus in those ecologically marginal regions that are impacted by ocean/atmosphere interaction, and to explain the synchrony of social crisis in Eurasia in the 17th century.
更新日期：2020-07-11
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