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Understanding the role of natural hazards in internal labour mobility in Australia
Weather and Climate Extremes ( IF 6.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-14 , DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100261
Kerstin K. Zander , Tom Wilson , Stephen T. Garnett

Australia is among the countries most exposed to natural hazards, particularly wildfire, cyclones, floods and heat waves. Natural disasters are expected to increase in frequency and severity as climate changes. For some people, the increase in risk from these disasters is a reason to move away from certain places or avoid others. Contemporary migration literature has largely ignored environmental factors for mobility, concentrating instead on economic and amenity or lifestyle factors. In this study we fill this gap by exploring the extent to which people in Australia consider natural hazards in their location choices and mobility decisions. Results from a survey using best-worst scaling showed that non-environmental factors prevail, with safety from crime the factor people consider most important when moving somewhere for a new job, followed by living costs and provision of adequate health care. Environmental factors were secondary in people's migration decisions but more important than attractive scenery and educational opportunities. The reasons people in Australia are not particularly dissuaded from moving to places where the prospects of good employment opportunities are high even though they risk the effects of natural disasters, might be a belief in their ability to cope with the disasters should they occur (self-efficacy). Among the environmental factors, high wildfire risk was most important in people's migration decisions, even though the survey was conducted before the devastating wildfires in 2019/20 which were unprecedented in their extent and severity. Wildfires might since have become more important in people's migration decisions, leading to long-term demographic change if people start avoiding high fire risk regions.



中文翻译:

了解自然灾害在澳大利亚内部劳动力流动中的作用

澳大利亚是最容易受到自然灾害影响的国家之一,特别是野火,旋风,洪水和热浪。随着气候变化,自然灾害的频率和严重性预计会增加。对于某些人来说,这些灾难带来的风险增加是远离某些地方或避开其他地方的原因。当代移民文学在很大程度上忽略了流动性的环境因素,而侧重于经济和舒适性或生活方式因素。在这项研究中,我们通过探索澳大利亚人在地点选择和出行决策中考虑自然灾害的程度来填补这一空白。使用最差标度的调查结果表明,非环境因素占主导,而在犯罪中安全则是人们认为搬到新工作地点时最重要的因素,其次是生活费用和适当的保健服务。环境因素在人们的迁移决策中是次要的,但比诱人的风景和受教育的机会更为重要。尽管人们冒险遭受自然灾害的影响,但并没有特别劝阻澳大利亚人不要搬到拥有良好就业机会的前景的原因,这可能是因为他们相信如果发生自然灾害,他们有能力应对灾害(自我功效)。在环境因素中,高野火风险对于人们的迁徙决策最为重要,尽管该调查是在2019/20年毁灭性野火之前进行的,其范围和严重性是前所未有的。此后,野火在人们的迁移决策中可能变得越来越重要,

更新日期:2020-05-14
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