We apply a physical climate storyline approach to an autumn flood event in the West Coast of Norway caused by an atmospheric river to demonstrate the value and challenges of higher spatial and temporal resolution in simulating flood impacts. We use a modelling chain whose outputs are familiar and used operationally, for example to issue flood warnings. With two different versions of a hydrological model, we show that (1) the higher spatial resolution between the global and regional climate model is necessary to realistically simulate the high spatial variability of precipitation in this mountainous region and (2) only with hourly data are we able to capture the fast flood-generating processes leading to the peak streamflow. The higher resolution regional atmospheric model captures the fact that with the passage of an atmospheric river, some valleys receive high amounts of precipitation and others not, while the coarser resolution global model shows uniform precipitation in the whole region. Translating the event into the future leads to similar results: while in some catchments, a future flood might be much larger than a present one, in others no event occurs as the atmospheric river simply does not hit that catchment. The use of an operational flood warning system for future events is expected to facilitate stakeholder engagement.

我们将物理气候故事情节方法应用于由大气河引起的挪威西海岸的秋季洪水事件，以展示更高的时空分辨率在模拟洪水影响中的价值和挑战。我们使用一个建模链，该链的输出是熟悉的并且可以在操作中使用，例如，发出洪水警报。利用两个不同版本的水文模型，我们表明（1）为了真实地模拟该山区降水的高空间变异性，必须在全球和区域气候模型之间使用更高的空间分辨率，以及（2）仅使用每小时数据我们能够捕获导致峰值流量的快速洪水泛滥过程。较高分辨率的区域大气模型反映了一个事实，即随着大气河的通过，一些山谷收到大量降水，而其他山谷则没有，而较高分辨率的全球模型显示整个地区降水均匀。将事件转化为未来会产生相似的结果：虽然在某些流域，未来的洪水可能比当前的洪水大得多，但在另一些流域，则不会发生任何事件，因为大气河流根本就不会袭击该流域。未来事件使用可操作的洪水预警系统有望促进利益相关者的参与。在另一些情况下，则不会发生任何事件，因为大气河根本不会撞到该流域。未来事件使用可操作的洪水预警系统有望促进利益相关者的参与。在另一些情况下，则不会发生任何事件，因为大气河根本不会撞到该流域。未来事件使用可操作的洪水预警系统有望促进利益相关者的参与。