Sugarcane is one of Fiji's largest commercial agricultural crops and greater than 80% of the raw sugar produced is exported. Few sugar-producing countries are as dependant on the contribution of sugar to the export market as Fiji. There has been a statistically significant decline in sugar yield since 1975. The proportion of sugar extracted from sugarcane has also declined as shown by the positive trend in the tonnes cane to tonnes sugar ratio (+0.07/year, p < 0.001). The role of climate in these changes was investigated by first using principal component analysis then stepwise regression to predict sugarcane and sugar yield. ‘Mild drought conditions’, an increase in the diurnal temperature range and cool conditions during the ripening and maturation period are favourable for sugar yield. The impact of future warmer, wetter and drier conditions on sugar yield was also examined, in the absence of adaptive measures. Results show declines in sugar yield with an increase in mean and extreme temperature. Results also show an increase in the number of rain days in March offsets the increase in temperature suggesting that an increase the number of rain days in the late growing season in a future climate may counter the influence of higher temperatures. As for Australia and other developed sugar producing countries, irrigation in the late growing season may be an option to increase yields and/or adapt to a warmer climate.

甘蔗是斐济最大的商业性农业作物之一，所生产的原糖中有80％以上用于出口。很少有食糖生产国像斐济那样依赖食糖对出口市场的贡献。自1975年以来，糖产量在统计上已显着下降。从甘蔗中提取糖的比例也有所下降，如吨甘蔗/吨糖比率呈正趋势（+ 0.07 /年，p <0.001）。首先使用主成分分析，然后逐步回归以预测甘蔗和糖的产量，研究了气候在这些变化中的作用。“轻度干旱条件”，日照温度范围的增加以及成熟和成熟期间的凉爽条件都对糖的产量有利。未来变暖的影响，在缺乏适应性措施的情况下，还研究了干湿条件对糖产量的影响。结果表明，随着平均温度和极端温度的升高，糖产量下降。结果还显示，三月份的雨天数增加抵消了气温的升高，这表明未来气候中生长季节后期的雨天数增加可以抵消高温的影响。至于澳大利亚和其他发达的食糖生产国，生长季后期的灌溉可能是增加产量和/或适应气候变暖的一种选择。结果还显示，三月份的雨天数增加抵消了气温的升高，这表明未来气候中生长季节后期的雨天数增加可以抵消高温的影响。至于澳大利亚和其他发达的食糖生产国，生长季后期的灌溉可能是增加产量和/或适应气候变暖的一种选择。结果还显示，三月份的雨天数增加抵消了气温的升高，这表明未来气候中生长季节后期的雨天数增加可以抵消高温的影响。至于澳大利亚和其他发达的食糖生产国，生长季后期的灌溉可能是增加产量和/或适应气候变暖的一种选择。