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Atmospheric circulation influence on temperature and precipitation individual and compound daily extreme events: Spatial variability and trends over southern South America
Weather and Climate Extremes ( IF 6.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-26 , DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100267
Matías Olmo , María Laura Bettolli , Matilde Rusticucci

Southern South America (SSA) is an extended region where temperature and precipitation daily extreme events have several impacts on the different socio-economic activities. In this work, their individual and compound occurrence over SSA and their association with atmospheric circulation were studied during 1979–2015, using meteorological stations and the CPC gridded dataset. Results were generally in good agreement between both datasets. The occurrence of a warm night (minimum temperature exceeding the 90th percentile) or a cold day (maximum temperature below the 10th percentile) significantly increases the probability of heavy precipitation (daily precipitation exceeding the 75th percentile) in southern Chile and southeastern South America. These compound events were regionally conditioned by specific circulation types. In addition, both individual and compound extremes showed trends in the different sub-regions. On one hand, heavy precipitation exhibited a significant increase over central-eastern Argentina and Uruguay, northeastern Argentina and southern Brazil during the warm season, and a significant decrease in central and southern Chile during the cold season. On the other hand, warm (cold) extremes generally presented significant upward (downward) trends. Compound events showed significant positive trends for selected regions, in some cases coincident with trends in individual extremes. Changes in the frequency of circulation patterns were found to partly influence some of these trends, like the increases in heavy precipitation and warm extremes during the warm season.



中文翻译:

大气环流对温度和降水的影响个别和复合的每日极端事件:南美洲南部的空间变异性和趋势

南美南部(SSA)是一个扩展区域,每天的气温和降水极端事件会对不同的社会经济活动产生若干影响。在这项工作中,使用气象台站和CPC网格数据集,研究了它们在SSA上的个体和复合物的发生以及它们与大气环流的关系。两个数据集之间的结果通常吻合良好。智利南部和南美东南部发生的暖夜(最低温度超过90%的最低气温)或寒冷的白天(最高温度低于10%的最高气温)的发生显着增加了强降水(每日降水超过75%的最高概率)的可能性。这些复合事件受特定循环类型的区域性制约。此外,极端事件和复合极端事件在不同的次区域都显示出趋势。一方面,在温暖季节,强降水比阿根廷中部东部和乌拉圭,阿根廷东北部和巴西南部显着增加,而在寒冷季节中智利中部和南部显着减少。另一方面,温暖(寒冷)的极端情况通常呈现出明显的上升(下降)趋势。复合事件在选定区域显示出明显的积极趋势,在某些情况下与个别极端事件的趋势一致。人们发现,循环模式的频率变化部分地影响了其中一些趋势,例如强降水的增加和温暖季节的极端极端天气。在温暖季节,阿根廷中东部和乌拉圭,阿根廷东北部和巴西南部的大降水量显着增加,而在寒冷季节,智利中部和南部的降水量显着减少。另一方面,温暖(寒冷)的极端情况通常呈现出显着的上升(下降)趋势。复合事件在选定区域显示出明显的积极趋势,在某些情况下与个别极端事件的趋势一致。人们发现,循环模式的频率变化部分地影响了其中一些趋势,例如强降水的增加和温暖季节的极端极端天气。在温暖季节,阿根廷中东部和乌拉圭,阿根廷东北部和巴西南部的大降水量显着增加,而在寒冷季节,智利中部和南部的降水量显着减少。另一方面,温暖(寒冷)的极端情况通常呈现出显着的上升(下降)趋势。复合事件在选定区域显示出明显的积极趋势,在某些情况下与个别极端事件的趋势一致。人们发现,循环模式的频率变化部分地影响了其中一些趋势,例如强降水的增加和温暖季节的极端极端天气。在寒冷季节智利中部和南部显着下降。另一方面,温暖(寒冷)的极端情况通常呈现出明显的上升(下降)趋势。复合事件在选定区域显示出明显的积极趋势,在某些情况下与个别极端事件的趋势一致。人们发现,循环模式的频率变化部分地影响了其中一些趋势,例如强降水的增加和温暖季节的极端极端天气。在寒冷季节智利中部和南部显着下降。另一方面,温暖(寒冷)的极端情况通常呈现出明显的上升(下降)趋势。复合事件在选定区域显示出明显的积极趋势,在某些情况下与个别极端事件的趋势一致。人们发现,循环模式的频率变化部分地影响了其中一些趋势,例如强降水的增加和温暖季节的极端极端天气。

更新日期:2020-06-26
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