Low-lying densely populated areas can be susceptible to flooding due to extreme river discharges. Insurance may be used to spread flood risk and reduce potential material damages. However, homeowners often purchase insufficient amounts of insurance against natural hazard risks like flooding, which may be due to the way they process probabilities. A common finding from (Cumulative) Prospect Theory is that individuals over-weight low probabilities and under-weight moderate to high probabilities in making decisions under risk. However, very low probabilities typical of flood risks are either significantly over-weighted or neglected altogether. This study aims to examine factors related to flood insurance demand regarding emotions specific to risk, like immediate and anticipated emotions, the threshold level of concern as well as personality traits, like locus of control. In addition, we compare results under real experiment incentives to hypothetical ones with high loss outcomes. Based on data collected from 1041 homeowners in the Netherlands, we find that: an internal locus of control and anticipated regret about potentially uninsured flood losses is related to higher flood insurance demand. The use of the threshold of concern model is related to more probability under-weighting/less probability over-weighting when probabilities of flooding are low. Several policies are suggested to overcome psychological factors related to low demand for flood insurance to improve future flood preparations.

低洼人口稠密的地区可能由于极端的河流排放而遭受洪水泛滥。保险可用于分散洪水风险并减少潜在的物质损失。但是，房主通常购买的保险额不足以抵御洪水等自然灾害风险，这可能是由于他们处理概率的方式所致。（累积）前景理论的一个常见发现是，个人在风险决策中权重过高的低概率和权重过低的中度到高概率。但是，洪水风险的典型概率非常低，或者被大大加重或者被完全忽略了。这项研究旨在探讨与洪水保险需求相关的因素，这些因素涉及特定于风险的情绪，例如即时情绪和预期情绪，关注阈值水平以及人格特质，像控制源。此外，我们将实际实验激励下的结果与损失率较高的假设实验下的结果进行了比较。根据从荷兰1041名房主收集的数据，我们发现：内部控制源和对潜在未保险洪水损失的预期遗憾与洪水保险需求增加有关。当洪泛概率低时，关注阈值模型的使用与更多的概率不足加权/较少的概率过度加权有关。建议采取一些政策来克服与洪水保险需求低有关的心理因素，以改善未来的洪水准备。我们发现：内部控制源和对潜在未保险洪水损失的预期遗憾与洪水保险需求增加有关。当洪水概率较低时，关注阈值模型的使用与更多的概率不足加权/较少的概率过度加权有关。建议采取一些政策来克服与洪水保险需求低有关的心理因素，以改善未来的洪水准备。我们发现：内部控制源和对潜在未保险洪水损失的预期遗憾与洪水保险需求增加有关。当洪水概率较低时，关注阈值模型的使用与更多的概率不足加权/较少的概率过度加权有关。建议采取一些政策来克服与洪水保险需求低有关的心理因素，以改善未来的洪水准备。