The paper examines the response of twelve U.S. agricultural stock returns to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shocks using a recursive VAR model. Baseline results indicate that for seven of the stock returns, an ENSO shock has positive and significant effects. The effects, however, are shortlived, generally becoming statistically indistinguishable from zero three to six months after the shock. Variance decomposition analyses show that ENSO shocks have little explanatory power for fluctuations in U.S. agricultural stock returns. We also provide evidence that historically, movements in the stock returns of U.S. food and agricultural companies have been driven by other shocks, rather than ENSO shocks.

本文使用递归VAR模型研究了十二种美国农业股票收益对厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）冲击的响应。基线结果表明，对于股票收益中的七个，ENSO冲击具有积极而显着的影响。然而，这种影响是短暂的，通常在电击后的三到六个月内从零开始统计上无法区分。方差分解分析表明，ENSO冲击对美国农业库存收益的波动几乎没有解释力。我们还提供了证据，从历史上看，美国食品和农业公司的股票收益变动是由其他冲击而非ENSO冲击驱动的。