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(g)etting to the point: The problem with water risk and uncertainty
Water Resources and Economics ( IF 2.3 ) Pub Date : 2019-10-26 , DOI: 10.1016/j.wre.2019.100154
Adam Loch , David Adamson , Christopher Auricht

Where we may be aware that a problem exists, but have only an incomplete description of the drivers and/or possible management solutions, we will be unaware/uncertain about future returns from, and risks to, private and public investments in capital (i.e. social, natural, economic, cultural and political). This paper explores the unawareness/uncertainty problem by coupling Arrow's states of nature approach for dealing with uncertainty with Rothschild and Stiglitz's exploration of inputs and increasing risk. This results in a modified Just-Pope production function equation isolating inputs to i) protect base capital (natural, social or private) and/or ii) generate an output. By exploring water input supply unawareness via alternative states of nature we may identify tipping points where current technology fails, resulting in irreversible losses of private and public capital tied to water inputs. We conclude by discussing the value of quantifying minimum-input requirements and identifying critical tipping-point outcomes in water systems, increased benefits/risks from transformed landscapes chasing higher economic returns, and the need for adaptive public arrangements in response. These insights may help us to understand future risk to natural capital from rising incentives to steal increasingly constrained resources that may trigger revised risk-sharing arrangements, and some limits to analyses relying on perfect foresight requirements by decision-makers.



中文翻译:

(g)要点:水风险和不确定性问题

当我们可能意识到存在问题,但对驱动因素和/或可能的管理解决方案的描述不完整时,我们将不知道/不确定私人和公共资本(如社会资本)的未来回报和风险。 ,自然,经济,文化和政治)。本文通过将箭头的自然状态方法(用于处理不确定性)与罗斯柴尔德(Rothschild)和斯蒂格利茨(Stiglitz)的投入物探索和增加风险相结合,探讨了不知道/不确定性问题。这导致修改后的Just-Pope生产函数方程式将输入隔离到i)保护基本资本(自然,社会或私人资本)和/或ii)生成输出。通过探索自然界的替代状态对水供应的不了解,我们可以确定当前技术失败的临界点,导致与水投入有关的私人和公共资本的不可逆转的损失。最后,我们讨论了量化最小投入需求和确定水系统中的关键临界点价值,追逐更高经济回报的转型景观带来的收益/风险增加以及对适应性公共安排的需求的价值。这些见解可以帮助我们了解不断增加的诱因,以窃取日益受限的资源(可能触发修订的风险分担安排),从而对自然资本的未来风险,以及依靠决策者的完美远见要求进行分析的局限性。追求更高的经济回报的景观改造带来的收益/风险增加,以及需要做出相应的适应性公共安排。这些见解可以帮助我们了解不断增加的诱因,以窃取日益受限的资源(可能触发修订的风险分担安排),从而对自然资本的未来风险,以及依靠决策者的完美远见要求进行分析的局限性。追求更高的经济回报的景观改造带来的收益/风险增加,以及需要做出相应的适应性公共安排。这些见解可以帮助我们了解不断增加的诱因,以窃取日益受限的资源(可能触发修订的风险分担安排),从而对自然资本的未来风险,以及依靠决策者的完美远见要求进行分析的局限性。

更新日期:2019-10-26
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