Cellular phones have gained popularity in emerging and developing economies over the last two decades. In this study, we show that the phenomenon of falling prices over time is applicable to the diffusion of prepaid mobile phones. This article extends the logistic diffusion model to accommodate disadopters of the service category. Goodness of fit of the extended model is found superior to the original version, which does not consider disadoption. The empirical findings show that for the 12 countries considered in the analysis, the diffusion speeds and the disadoption rates are influenced by one marketing factor and three socioeconomic factors.

中文翻译：

---

研究预付费移动电话在某些新兴市场和发展中经济体中的传播情况

在过去的二十年中，蜂窝电话在新兴经济体和发展中经济体中已经普及。在这项研究中，我们表明价格随时间下降的现象适用于预付费手机的普及。本文扩展了逻辑扩散模型，以适应服务类别的后适应者。发现扩展模型的拟合优度优于原始版本，后者不认为不可接受。实证结果表明，在分析中考虑的12个国家中，传播速度和不接受率受一个销售因素和三个社会经济因素影响。