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Cigarette smoking on college campuses: an epidemical modelling approach
Journal of Applied Mathematics and Computing ( IF 2.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-15 , DOI: 10.1007/s12190-020-01402-y
Prince Harvim , Hong Zhang , Paul Georgescu , Lai Zhang

Cigarette smoking on college campuses has become a significant public health issue, which in turn led to an increasing focus on establishing programs to reduce its prevalence. In this paper, a compartmental model depicting the spread and cessation of the smoking habit on college campuses, obtained using theoretical principles often employed in mathematical epidemiology, is proposed and analysed. The existence and stability of the habitual smoking-free and habitual smoking-persistent equilibria, respectively, are explored in terms of a threshold parameter, hereby called the smokers generation number and denoted by \(R_c\). A sensitivity analysis indicates that \(R_c\) is the most sensitive to the contact rate between habitual-smokers and occasional-smokers and to the rate of successfully quitting smoking. Numerical simulations of the proposed optimal control strategies reveal that the most effective approach to reduce the prevalence of cigarette smoking and possibly achieve a smoking-free campus should combine both control measures, namely allocating mandatory smoking rooms together with educating the public on the harmful effects of smoking and providing large scale guidance, counselling and support therapy to help students quit smoking.



中文翻译:

高校校园吸烟:一种流行病建模方法

在大学校园吸烟已成为一个重要的公共卫生问题,这反过来又导致人们越来越重视制定减少其流行率的计划。在本文中,提出并分析了描述大学习惯中吸烟习惯的传播和戒除的隔间模型,该模型是根据数学流行病学中经常采用的理论原理而获得的。习惯性无烟和习惯性持久吸烟平衡的存在性和稳定性分别根据阈值参数来探讨,该阈值参数称为吸烟者代数,用\(R_c \)表示。敏感性分析表明\(R_c \)对惯常吸烟者和偶尔吸烟者之间的接触率以及成功戒烟率最敏感。拟议的最佳控制策略的数值模拟表明,减少吸烟流行率并可能实现无烟校园的最有效方法应结合两种控制措施,即分配强制性吸烟室以及对公众进行宣传,以了解吸烟的有害影响。吸烟,并提供大规模的指导,咨询和支持疗法,以帮助学生戒烟。

更新日期:2020-07-24
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