Predicting complete winter ice coverage at Lake George, New York,International Journal of Climatology

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Predicting complete winter ice coverage at Lake George, New York
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-23 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.6764
Campbell D. Watson ₁ , Guillaume Auger ₁ , Mukul Tewari ₁ , Lloyd A. Treinish ₁ , Kenneth E. Johnston ₂

Affiliation

Ice records at Lake George, an oligotrophic and dimictic freshwater lake in upstate New York, United States reveal that it has failed to freeze over completely 13 times since 1990. This transition from annual to intermittent ice cover is analogous to many other dimictic freshwater lakes globally. Over 60 years of meteorological observations from a nearby airport are analysed and a complicated picture emerges when considering the specific characteristics of each year. For example, Lake George froze over in 1983 and 2007 despite the air temperature having a net warming effect on the lake in the month prior to ice‐in. Simple machine learning classifiers are trained using local weather data to predict the presence of complete ice coverage on Lake George and are found to perform adequately compared to observations, with one configuration having an accuracy of 91%. Using downscaled data from a coupled‐climate model through to 2,100, projections with the trained classifiers suggest complete ice coverage will be a phenomenon of the past by the mid‐to‐late 21st Century. Furthermore, by 2080–2,100 the mean air temperature is projected to warm up to +8.0 C under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. These projections will be of concern to the communities and policy makers of Lake George responsible for the management of the ecological and socio‐economic systems.

中文翻译：

预测纽约乔治湖的完整冬季冰盖

乔治湖是美国纽约州的一个富营养性和微缩淡水湖泊，其冰记录显示，自1990年以来，它已经完全冻结了13次以上。这种从逐年冰盖到间歇性冰盖的过渡类似于全球其他许多微缩淡水湖泊。。分析了附近机场的60多年来的气象观测结果，并且考虑到每年的特定特征后，情况变得复杂起来。例如，乔治湖在1983年和2007年结冰，尽管气温在结冰前一个月对湖面产生了净变暖作用。使用本地天气数据对简单的机器学习分类器进行了训练，以预测乔治湖上完全冰覆盖的存在，并且与观测值相比，它们的表现令人满意，一种配置的精度为91％。使用从耦合气候模型到2100年的缩减数据，经过训练有素的分类器进行的预测表明，到21世纪中叶，完全的冰覆盖将成为过去的现象。此外，到2080年至2100年，在“代表性浓度路径8.5”下，预计平均气温将升至+8.0C。这些预测将引起乔治湖负责生态和社会经济系统管理的社区和决策者的关注。代表浓度途径8.5下的0C。这些预测将引起乔治湖负责生态和社会经济系统管理的社区和决策者的关注。代表浓度途径8.5下的0C。这些预测将引起乔治湖负责生态和社会经济系统管理的社区和决策者的关注。

更新日期：2020-07-23

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