In a referendum in March 2016, the British public voted by a margin of 52 per cent to 48 per cent to leave the European Union. Unfortunately, the referendum question provides little information on the sort of relationship Britons desire with the EU. The purpose of this study is to use stated choice experiments (CEs) to understand and quantify what aspects of the relationship between Britain and the EU are important to the public and what trade-offs they would be willing to make. The CEs are undertaken with a random probability sample of the public at two points in time, 2017 and 2018, to allow us to explore how preferences might have changed over time. We developed a series of discrete choice models ranging from Scaled Multinomial Logit models (SMNLs) to Latent Class models (LCMs) to understand and quantify public preferences and to explore how they vary across the population. The results are used to assess how positively or negatively the public value different plausible Brexit negotiation positions.

在2016年3月的公民投票中，英国公众以52％对48％的选票投票赞成离开欧盟。不幸的是，全民投票问题很少提供有关英国人希望与欧盟建立何种关系的信息。这项研究的目的是使用既定选择实验（CE）来理解和量化英国和欧盟之间关系的哪些方面对公众很重要，以及他们愿意做出哪些取舍。在2017年和2018年的两个时间点对公众进行随机抽样（CE），以使我们能够探索偏好随时间的变化情况。我们开发了一系列离散选择模型，从比例多项式Lo​​git模型（SMNL）到潜在类模型（LCM），以了解和量化公共偏好，并探讨它们在整个人群中的变化。该结果用于评估公众对不同的英国脱欧谈判立场的正面或负面评价。