Abstract The objective of this study was to estimate the risk associated with staphylococcal enterotoxin (SE) exposure from the consumption of Nile tilapia supplied through the semi-regulated and unregulated value chain in Kenya. The fish supply chain was modeled from landing to consumption of unprocessed (fresh) and processed (salted and sun dried, smoked, filleted) fish. Data related to prevalence of Staphylococcus aureus in fish, taking into account survey information on handling, storage, processing and consumption of Nile tilapia were collected from recently completed studies in Kenya. Other model inputs were complemented with data from published and unpublished literature. A probabilistic exposure model was developed with Monte Carlo simulation in Excel add-in software using @Risk software. The simulated levels of S. aureus in fish after handling and storage of salted and sun dried and smoked fish ranged between 4 log CFU/g and 9.01 log CFU/g (maximum population density), while in fillet, levels of S. aureus following growth during display at retail shops was between 3.10 log CFU/g (5% percentile) and 9.01 log CFU/g (95% percentile). Estimated SE dose per-serving in fish supplied after processing was significantly higher (p

中文翻译：

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通过半监管和不受监管的价值链供应的尼罗罗非鱼（Oreochromis niloticus）中葡萄球菌肠毒素的暴露评估

摘要 本研究的目的是评估与通过肯尼亚半监管和不受监管的价值链供应的尼罗罗非鱼消费导致的葡萄球菌肠毒素 (SE) 暴露相关的风险。鱼类供应链从上岸到消费未加工（新鲜）和加工（盐渍和晒干、熏制、鱼片）的鱼进行建模。考虑到有关尼罗罗非鱼处理、储存、加工和消费的调查信息，从肯尼亚最近完成的研究中收集了与鱼类中金黄色葡萄球菌流行率相关的数据。其他模型输入由来自已发表和未发表文献的数据补充。概率暴露模型是使用@Risk 软件在 Excel 插件软件中通过蒙特卡罗模拟开发的。S 的模拟水平。处理和储存腌制、晒干和熏制的鱼后，鱼中的金黄色葡萄球菌在 4 log CFU/g 至 9.01 log CFU/g（最大种群密度）之间，而在鱼片中，零售店展示期间生长后的金黄色葡萄球菌水平介于 3.10 log CFU/g（5% 百分位）和 9.01 log CFU/g（95% 百分位）之间。加工后供应的鱼中每份的估计 SE 剂量显着更高（p