The transition to a climate-neutral economy is expected to increase future timber demands and endanger the multifunctionality of forests. National scenario analyses are needed to determine long-term forest management impacts and support forest policy making in defining guidelines for the sustainable provision of forests’ ecosystem services and biodiversity (ESB). Using national forestry inventory data, the forest management model MASSIMO and a model to estimate harvesting costs, we simulated forest development in Switzerland under five politically relevant timber harvesting scenarios until 2106 (business as usual and four increased timber mobilisation scenarios). Model results were analysed using a utility-based multi-criteria approach regarding timber production, protection against gravitational hazards, carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation for the whole of Switzerland and for five sub-regions. The development of ESB benefits over time and existing trade-offs were analysed. Apart from the Plateau region, the business-as-usual scenario resulted in the highest overall ESB benefits. However, this scenario did not mobilise possible timber potentials, which is not in line with current forest policies. In the Plateau region, ESB benefited most under a constant growing stock scenario that guaranteed long-term sustainable timber usage. Nevertheless, both scenarios showed strong trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and the service carbon sequestration. The latter was achieved best under a scenario with conifer promotion and increased harvested timber volumes that can be used for long-living timber products and substitution of energy intensive materials and fossil fuels. Even though weighting the ESB according to regional management priorities further increased the trade-off situation, it also increased the overall benefits of harvesting scenarios, except for in mountainous regions. We conclude that no single scenario can maximize all ESB benefits simultaneously. A combination of locally adapted scenarios with targeted priorities can guarantee a higher degree of multifunctionality and long-term timber supply, but at the cost of locally more accentuated trade-offs. Overall, our study provides new insights into ESB interactions, and the presented multi-criteria framework and results provide a valuable basis to support forest policy decision making in Switzerland and beyond.

向气候中性经济的过渡预计将增加未来对木材的需求，并危及森林的多功能性。需要进行国家情景分析，以确定对森林的长期管理影响，并在制定可持续提供森林生态系统服务和生物多样性（ESB）的准则时支持森林决策。使用国家林业清单数据，森林管理模型MASSIMO和估计采伐成本的模型，我们模拟了瑞士在五个与政治相关的木材采伐情景下的森林发展，直到2106年（照常营业和四个增加的木材动员情景）。使用基于实用程序的多准则方法对模型结果进行了分析，这些方法涉及木材生产，防止重力危害，整个瑞士和五个次区域的碳固存和生物多样性保护。随着时间的流逝，ESB收益的发展以及现有的权衡因素都得到了分析。除高原地区外，按常规进行业务的情景可带来最高的ESB总体收益。但是，这种情况并未调动可能的木材潜力，这与当前的森林政策不符。在高原地区，在保证长期可持续使用木材的前提下，ESB在受益于不断增长的存量情况下受益最大。然而，这两种情况都表明，在生物多样性保护和服务碳封存之间有很强的权衡。在采用针叶树推广和增加采伐木材量（可用于长寿命木材产品以及替代高耗能材料和化石燃料）的情况下，后者取得了最佳效果。即使根据区域管理优先级对ESB进行加权也进一步增加了权衡情况，但也增加了收获方案的总体收益（山区除外）。我们得出的结论是，没有任何一种方案可以同时最大化所有ESB收益。将本地适应方案与目标优先级相结合，可以保证更高程度的多功能性和长期木材供应，但要以牺牲本地权衡为代价。总体而言，我们的研究为ESB互动提供了新的见解，