Abstract This paper presents a stock-flow consistent (SFC) macroeconomic simulation model for Canada. We use the model to generate three very different stories about the future of the Canadian economy, covering the half century from 2017 to 2067: a Base Case Scenario in which current trends and relationships are projected into the future, a Carbon Reduction Scenario in which measures are introduced specifically designed to reduce Canada's carbon emissions, and a Sustainable Prosperity Scenario which incorporates additional measures to improve environmental, social and financial conditions across society. The performance of the economy is tracked using two composite indicators constructed especially for this study: an environmental burden index (EBI) which describes the environmental performance of the model; and a composite sustainable prosperity index (SPI) which is based on a weighted average of seven economic, social and environmental performance indicators. Contrary to the widely accepted view, the results suggest that ‘green growth’ (in the Carbon Reduction Scenario) may be slower than ‘brown growth’. More importantly, we show (in the Sustainable Prosperity Scenario) that improved environmental and social outcomes are possible even as the growth rate declines to zero.

中文翻译：

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加拿大向可持续繁荣的过渡——一种存量流动一致的生态宏观经济模型

摘要 本文提出了一个加拿大的存量流量一致性（SFC）宏观经济模拟模型。我们使用该模型生成了关于加拿大经济未来的三个截然不同的故事，涵盖了从 2017 年到 2067 年的半个世纪：一个基本案例情景，其中将当前趋势和关系预测到未来，一个碳减排情景，其中措施引入了专门用于减少加拿大碳排放的可持续繁荣情景，该情景结合了其他措施以改善整个社会的环境、社会和金融状况。使用专门为本研究构建的两个复合指标来跟踪经济绩效：环境负担指数 (EBI)，它描述了模型的环境绩效；综合可持续繁荣指数 (SPI)，该指数基于七个经济、社会和环境绩效指标的加权平均值。与广泛接受的观点相反，结果表明“绿色增长”（在碳减排情景中）可能比“棕色增长”慢。更重要的是，我们（在可持续繁荣情景中）表明，即使增长率降至零，环境和社会成果的改善也是可能的。