Abstract The projection of precipitation extremes is of significant importance for the reliable management of regional water resources. Thus, this study explores the potential response of the popularly used precipitation extreme indices to the global warming for near future (2011–2040), middle future (2041–2070) and far future (2071–2100) periods, based on the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) Africa experiment outputs over Ethiopia. The results show that the wet (dry) spells were projected to significantly decrease (increase) over most parts of Ethiopia, with relatively longer (shorter) dry (wet) spells projected over the northern parts of Ethiopia. Conversely, the projected changes in extreme precipitation amount above the 95th percentile showed a substantial increase over most parts of Ethiopia, with higher values projected to be in the southern region. The result implies that extreme and heavy precipitation events are likely to be more intense, and could amplify the probability of flood risks, particularly over the southern region. The total and extreme precipitations generally show a strong positive correlation, indicating the increase in extreme precipitation is responsible for the increase in total wet-day precipitation amount in Ethiopia. In general, climate change will have high negative impacts on the dynamics of precipitation patterns over Ethiopia, which could result in more long dry seasons and shorter rainy seasons over most parts of Ethiopia. Thus, the food and water security situation in the region is highly vulnerable due to the projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climate extremes (droughts and floods). However, the increase in precipitation extremes could have the potential to enhance the dry season agricultural productivity of most of the regions in Ethiopia using efficient irrigation systems through excess water harvesting in the rainy season. This can also reduce flood occurrences and hence economic damages. In general, it is of great importance to discuss the socio-economic impacts that could result if increasing precipitation extremes, as well as the increasing (decreasing) trend of maximum length of the dry (wet) spells, continue in the future.

中文翻译：

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来自东非埃塞俄比亚 CORDEX 模拟的极端降水指数预测变化

摘要 降水极值的预测对于区域水资源的可靠管理具有重要意义。因此，本研究基于协调的区域性，探讨了常用降水极端指数对近期（2011-2040）、中期（2041-2070）和远期（2071-2100）全球变暖的潜在响应。埃塞俄比亚的气候降尺度实验 (CORDEX) 非洲实验结果。结果表明，预计埃塞俄比亚大部分地区的湿（干）期将显着减少（增加），而埃塞俄比亚北部地区预计的干（湿）期相对较长（较短）。相反，超过 95% 的极端降水量的预测变化显示埃塞俄比亚大部分地区大幅增加，预计南部地区会有更高的价值。结果意味着极端和强降水事件可能会更加强烈，并可能放大洪水风险的可能性，特别是在南部地区。总降水量和极端降水量总体呈现较强的正相关关系，表明极端降水量的增加是埃塞俄比亚湿日降水总量增加的原因。总的来说，气候变化将对埃塞俄比亚降水模式的动态产生很大的负面影响，这可能导致埃塞俄比亚大部分地区的旱季更长，雨季更短。因此，由于极端气候（干旱和洪水）的强度和频率的预计变化，该地区的粮食和水安全形势非常脆弱。然而，极端降水的增加有可能通过在雨季收集多余的水来使用高效的灌溉系统提高埃塞俄比亚大部分地区的旱季农业生产力。这也可以减少洪水的发生，从而减少经济损失。总的来说，讨论如果极端降水增加以及旱（湿）期最长持续时间增加（减少）趋势可能导致的社会经济影响非常重要。这也可以减少洪水的发生，从而减少经济损失。总的来说，讨论如果极端降水增加以及旱（湿）期最长持续时间增加（减少）趋势可能导致的社会经济影响非常重要。这也可以减少洪水的发生，从而减少经济损失。总的来说，讨论如果极端降水增加以及旱（湿）期最长持续时间增加（减少）趋势可能导致的社会经济影响非常重要。