In this study, a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution–based statistical model has been developed and proposed to simulate historical and future precipitation extremes in the Xin’an River basin, and the vertical mixed runoff model was driven by future precipitation extremes to simulate the hydrological response to extreme flood events. An adaptive flood control operation model has been established and solved using genetic algorithm in order to ensure the safety of dam and downstream areas under precipitation extremes. In view of the precipitation events for the period 1951–2017, the monthly extreme precipitation events are expected to rise in the period 2020–2100 by 10.4%, 11.0%, and 11.4% at a 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period, respectively. After optimal regulation, the maximum release is reduced by 60.8%, 43.6%, and 42.7%, while the average reservoir water level is reduced by 0.13 m, 0.14 m, and 0.11 m in extreme flood events with a 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period, respectively. In conclusion, the adaptive flood control operation can ensure the safety of dam and downstream areas and mitigate possible impacts of extreme flood events under climate change.

中文翻译：

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气候变化下未来降水极端情况下新安水库的自适应防洪运行

在这项研究中，开发并提出了一种基于广义极值（GEV）分布的统计模型来模拟新安河流域的历史和未来降水极端，而垂直混合径流模型是由未来降水极端驱动的，以模拟对极端洪水事件的水文响应。为了确保大坝及下游地区在极端降雨条件下的安全性，建立了自适应防洪运行模型并利用遗传算法进行求解。考虑到1951-2017年期间的降水事件，预计在2020年至2100年的10年，20年和50年期间，每月极端降水事件将分别增加10.4％，11.0％和11.4％。回报期。经过最佳调节后，最大释放量分别降低了60.8％，43.6％和42.7％，而在10年，20年和50年回归期的极端洪水事件中，平均水库水位分别降低了0.13 m，0.14 m和0.11 m。总之，自适应防洪行动可以确保大坝和下游地区的安全，并减轻气候变化下极端洪水事件的可能影响。