ABSTRACT The level of quasi-stationary planetary wave (QSW) activity in the Antarctic winter stratosphere provides insights into the likely behaviour of the ozone hole in the following spring months. Observation of anomalously large amplitude of the QSW in winter stratospheric temperatures is an indicator that strong disturbances to the polar vortex are likely to occur, and may lead to large reductions in both the area of the Antarctic ozone hole and the overall amount of stratospheric ozone that is depleted. In the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) preconditions in 2019, the maximum QSW amplitude over Antarctica in August was approximately 12 K, which was only 2 K less than conditions prior to the unprecedented major SSW in 2002. The additional factors disturbing the Antarctic stratosphere in austral winter 2019 were anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean and the western Indian Ocean, and the descending easterly phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Under these preconditions, the Antarctic ozone hole in 2019 had the potential to demonstrate the early disruption and reduced level of the ozone depletion that has been confirmed by the satellite ozone observations. The anomalous ozone hole may also have important regional consequences for weather conditions in the Southern Hemisphere.

中文翻译：

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南极洲 2019 年春季臭氧空洞异常行为的早期迹象

摘要 南极冬季平流层准静止行星波 (QSW) 活动的水平提供了对接下来春季几个月臭氧空洞可能行为的见解。冬季平流层温度观测到的 QSW 异常大振幅表明极地涡旋可能发生强烈扰动，并可能导致南极臭氧空洞面积和平流层臭氧总量大幅减少。耗尽。在 2019 年平流层突然变暖 (SSW) 的先决条件下，8 月南极洲上空的最大 QSW 振幅约为 12 K，仅比 2002 年前所未有的主要 SSW 之前的条件小 2 K。2019 年南极冬季扰动南极平流层的其他因素是热带太平洋中部和印度洋西部异常温暖的海面温度，以及准两年一次的东风下降阶段。在这些先决条件下，2019 年的南极臭氧空洞有可能证明臭氧消耗的早期破坏和降低水平，这已被卫星臭氧观测证实。异常的臭氧空洞也可能对南半球的天气状况产生重要的区域影响。2019 年的南极臭氧空洞有可能证明臭氧消耗的早期破坏和降低水平，这已被卫星臭氧观测证实。异常的臭氧空洞也可能对南半球的天气状况产生重要的区域影响。2019 年的南极臭氧空洞有可能证明臭氧消耗的早期破坏和降低水平，这已被卫星臭氧观测证实。异常的臭氧空洞也可能对南半球的天气状况产生重要的区域影响。