Crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS) outbreaks are a globally significant driver of coral mortality in the Indo-Pacific and work synergistically with other disturbances. We argue that our improved understanding of COTS ecology and ability to monitor their populations, combined with new efficiencies in COTS control technologies, provides a sound basis for attempting to suppress COTS outbreaks on the GBR before they reach full outbreak status. This conclusion is based on research on the GBR which we have synthesised to develop a new, pragmatic approach to managing primary outbreaks. We also outline key actions that must be undertaken in order for suppression to be successful, providing clear direction for future management action. The next COTS outbreak on the GBR is predicted to begin between 2025 and 2027, consequently efforts to detect and suppress pre-initiation populations must start no later than the summer of 2022–2023.

中文翻译：

---

抑制下一次大堡礁上的荆棘冠爆发

棘冠海星 (COTS) 爆发是印度-太平洋地区珊瑚死亡的全球重要驱动因素，并与其他干扰协同作用。我们认为，我们对 COTS 生态学的更好理解和监测其种群的能力，结合 COTS 控制技术的新效率，为试图在 GBR 达到完全爆发状态之前抑制 COTS 爆发提供了良好的基础。这一结论是基于对 GBR 的研究，我们已经综合这些研究来开发一种新的、务实的方法来管理初级疫情。我们还概述了为了成功抑制而必须采取的关键行动，为未来的管理行动提供明确的方向。GBR 的下一次 COTS 爆发预计将在 2025 年至 2027 年之间开始，