Landslide hazards in British Columbia are mainly caused by precipitation and can result in significant damage and fatalities. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase precipitation frequency and intensity in the winter, spring, and fall in British Columbia (BC), potentially resulting in increased frequency of landslide hazard. Quantifying the effect of changing precipitation on future landslide hazard across the varying topographic and climatic conditions in BC requires detailed projections of future precipitation. Here, the operational Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model is used with high-resolution, statistically downscaled daily precipitation to generate detailed simulations of landslide hazard in BC over the twenty-first century. Historical evaluation of the LHASA model is performed using a station-based, gridded observational precipitation dataset. Classification of observed landslide dates and locations as hazard events occurs as successfully as, or slightly better than, when LHASA is applied globally with satellite precipitation. Using the LHASA model with precipitation projections from 12 downscaled global climate models following RCP8.5 indicates that future landslide hazard frequency will increase from 16 days per year to 21 days per year (32%) on average by the 2050s for landslide susceptible regions in the province. Areas of the province currently with the most frequent landslide hazards (18 to 21 days per year), including the west coast and northern Rocky Mountains, are expected to see between 8 and 11 additional hazardous days (49 to 61% increases) per year. Most of the increased hazard frequency occurs during winter and fall, reflecting those seasons with the largest projected increases in single and multi-day precipitation. Risk assessments for regions in British Columbia vulnerable to landslides will need to account for increasing hazard due to climate change altered precipitation.

中文翻译：

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不列颠哥伦比亚省降水引起的滑坡频率的未来变化

不列颠哥伦比亚省的山体滑坡灾害主要由降水引起，可导致重大破坏和死亡。预计人为气候变化将增加不列颠哥伦比亚省 (BC) 冬季、春季和秋季的降水频率和强度，可能导致滑坡灾害的频率增加。在不列颠哥伦比亚省不同的地形和气候条件下，量化降水变化对未来滑坡灾害的影响需要对未来降水进行详细预测。在这里，情境意识的滑坡灾害风险评估 (LHASA) 模型与高分辨率、统计上缩减的日降水一起使用，以生成 21 世纪不列颠哥伦比亚省滑坡灾害的详细模拟。LHASA 模型的历史评估是使用基于站点的网格观测降水数据集进行的。将观测到的滑坡日期和地点分类为灾害事件的发生与 LHASA 在全球范围内通过卫星降水应用时一样成功或略好。使用 LHASA 模型和 RCP8.5 之后 12 个降尺度全球气候模型的降水预测表明，到 2050 年代，未来的滑坡灾害频率将从每年 16 天增加到每年 21 天（32%）。省。该省目前滑坡灾害最频繁的地区（每年 18 至 21 天），包括西海岸和落基山脉北部，预计每年会增加 8 至 11 天（增加 49 至 61%）。大多数增加的灾害频率发生在冬季和秋季，反映了单日和多日降水量预计增幅最大的那些季节。不列颠哥伦比亚省容易发生山体滑坡的地区的风险评估将需要考虑由于气候变化改变降水而增加的危害。