Models predicting disease transmission are vital tools for long-term planning of malaria reduction efforts, particularly for mitigating impacts of climate change. We compared temperature-dependent malaria transmission models when mosquito life-history traits were estimated from a truncated portion of the lifespan (a common practice) versus traits measured across the full lifespan. We conducted an experiment on adult female Anopheles stephensi, the Asian urban malaria mosquito, to generate daily per capita values for mortality, egg production and biting rate at six constant temperatures. Both temperature and age significantly affected trait values. Further, we found quantitative and qualitative differences between temperature–trait relationships estimated from truncated data versus observed lifetime values. Incorporating these temperature–trait relationships into an expression governing the thermal suitability of transmission, relative R0(T), resulted in minor differences in the breadth of suitable temperatures for Plasmodium falciparum transmission between the two models constructed from only An. stephensi trait data. However, we found a substantial increase in thermal niche breadth compared with a previously published model consisting of trait data from multiple Anopheles mosquito species. Overall, this work highlights the importance of considering how mosquito trait values vary with mosquito age and mosquito species when generating temperature-based suitability predictions of transmission.

中文翻译：

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年龄影响恶性疟原虫在亚洲疟疾媒介按蚊中传播的热适宜性

预测疾病传播的模型是长期规划减少疟疾工作的重要工具，尤其是减轻气候变化的影响。我们比较了温度依赖的疟疾传播模型，当蚊子的生活史特征是从生命周期的截断部分（一种常见做法）与整个生命周期中测量的特征进行估计时。我们对成年雌性史蒂芬斯按蚊（亚洲城市疟疾蚊子）进行了一项实验，以在六个恒定温度下产生死亡率、产蛋量和叮咬率的每日人均值。温度和年龄都显着影响性状值。此外，我们发现根据截断数据估计的温度 - 性状关系与观察到的寿命值之间存在定量和定性差异。将这些温度-性状关系纳入控制传播热适宜性的表达式中，相对 R0(T)，导致仅从 An 构建的两个模型之间恶性疟原虫传播的适宜温度范围略有差异。斯蒂芬西特征数据。然而，我们发现与先前发布的模型相比，热生态位宽度显着增加，该模型由多种按蚊物种的性状数据组成。总的来说，这项工作强调了在生成基于温度的传播适宜性预测时考虑蚊子特征值如何随蚊子年龄和蚊子种类变化的重要性。导致仅从 An 构建的两个模型之间恶性疟原虫传播的合适温度范围略有差异。斯蒂芬西特征数据。然而，我们发现与先前发布的模型相比，热生态位宽度显着增加，该模型由多种按蚊物种的性状数据组成。总的来说，这项工作强调了在生成基于温度的传播适宜性预测时考虑蚊子特征值如何随蚊子年龄和蚊子种类变化的重要性。导致仅从 An 构建的两个模型之间恶性疟原虫传播的合适温度范围略有差异。斯蒂芬西特征数据。然而，我们发现与先前发布的模型相比，热生态位宽度显着增加，该模型由多种按蚊物种的性状数据组成。总的来说，这项工作强调了在生成基于温度的传播适宜性预测时考虑蚊子特征值如何随蚊子年龄和蚊子种类变化的重要性。