当前位置: X-MOL 学术bioRxiv. Zool. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Implications of the COVID-19 lockdown on dengue transmission in Malaysia
bioRxiv - Zoology Pub Date : 2020-09-18 , DOI: 10.1101/2020.07.21.214056
Song-Quan Ong , Hamdan Ahmad , Ahmad Mohiddin Mohd Ngesom

The impact of movement restrictions during the COVID-19 lockdown on the existing endemic infectious disease dengue fever has generated considerable research interest. We compared the Malaysia weekly epidemiological records of dengue incidences during the period of lockdown to the trend of previous years (2015 to 2019) and a simulation at the corresponding period that expected no movement restrictions. We found that the dengue incidence declined significantly with a greater magnitude at phase 1 of lockdown, with a negative gradient of 3.2-fold steeper than the trend observed in previous years and 6.5-fold steeper than the simulation, indicating that the control of population movement did reduce dengue transmission. However, starting from phase 2 of lockdown, the dengue incidences demonstrated an elevation and earlier rebound by at least 4 weeks and grew with an exponential pattern compared to the simulation and previous years. Together with our data on Aedes mosquitoes from a district of Penang, Malaysia, we revealed that Aedes albopictus is the predominant species for both indoor and outdoor environments. The abundance of the mosquito was increasing steadily during the period of lockdown, and demonstrated strong correlation with the locally reported dengue incidences; therefore, we proposed the possible diffusive effect of vector that led to a higher acceleration of incidence rate. These findings would help authorities review the direction and efforts of the vector control strategy.

中文翻译:

COVID-19封锁对马来西亚登革热传播的影响

在COVID-19锁定期间移动限制对现有的地方性传染病登革热的影响引起了相当大的研究兴趣。我们将马来西亚在锁定期间的登革热发病率的每周流行病学记录与往年(2015年至2019年)的趋势进行了比较,并在同期进行了模拟,预期没有活动限制。我们发现登革热发病率在锁定的第1阶段显着下降,幅度更大,其负梯度比前几年的趋势陡峭3.2倍,比模拟趋势陡峭6.5倍,表明对人口迁移的控制确实减少了登革热的传播。但是,从锁定的第二阶段开始,与模拟和往年相比,登革热发病率呈上升趋势,至少反弹了至少4周,并且呈指数增长。连同我们的数据埃及从马来西亚槟城的地区蚊子,我们发现,白纹伊蚊是室内和室外环境的主要物质。在封锁期间,蚊子的数量稳定增加,并与当地报道的登革热发病率密切相关。因此,我们提出了向量可能的扩散效应,从而导致更高的入射速率加速。这些发现将有助于当局审查病媒控制策略的方向和努力。
更新日期:2020-09-20
down
wechat
bug