The reliable projection of future changes in hydrological drought characteristics plays a crucial role in providing meaningful insights into agricultural development and water resources planning under climate change. In this study, we develop probabilistic projections of hydrological drought characteristics through a convection‐permitting climate simulation and a multimodel hydrological prediction for two major river basins in South Texas of the United States. The probabilistic hydrological drought projection depicts the future evolution of spatiotemporal characteristics of droughts under best‐ and worst‐case scenarios. Our findings reveal that there is a considerable variation in hydrological drought regimes near the urban area in South Texas. And the prolonged severe drought events are expected to be punctuated by the increasing extreme precipitation in a changing climate. This could lead to an increasing number of the dry‐wet abrupt alternation events. Moreover, hydrological droughts are projected to occur more frequently for the fall season in the Guadalupe River Basin and for the winter season in the Blanco River Basin, advancing our understanding of future changes in seasonal characteristics of hydrological droughts at a river basin scale.

中文翻译：

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对流允许气候模拟和多模型水文预报的水文干旱概率预测

对未来水文干旱特征变化的可靠预测在提供有意义的见解，应对气候变化下的农业发展和水资源规划方面发挥着至关重要的作用。在本研究中，我们通过对流允许气候模拟和多模式水文预测，开发了美国南德克萨斯州两个主要流域的水文干旱特征概率预测。概率性水文干旱预测描述了在最佳和最坏情况下干旱时空特征的未来演变。我们的发现表明，南得克萨斯州市区附近的水文干旱状况存在很大差异。在气候变化的情况下，极端降水的增加预计会造成长时间的严重干旱事件。这可能导致越来越多的干湿交替事件。此外，预计瓜达卢佩河流域的秋季和布兰科河流域的冬季将更频繁发生水文干旱，这加深了我们对流域水文干旱季节性特征未来变化的认识。